Skift hold

The colossal Ryanair machine relies on hyperefficiency and ruthless cost monitoring. By its own admission, Ryanair was “overloaded with schedules, crew and costs that were too high” this summer. This will not allow this to happen again.

Gordon Smith

Ryanair warned on Monday of a continued impact on passenger growth due to Boeing delivery delays. Europe’s largest airline expects to carry 210 million passengers next year, down from the previous target of 215 million. It comes as the company reported an 18% drop in first-half net profit, slightly below analyst forecasts.

Multiple factors are at stake, but the shortage of new planes is one of the biggest problems. Ryanair was due to receive 11 Boeing 737 Max planes between October and December. Only two are now expected over this period.

Ryanair Chief Financial Officer Neil Sorahan said that Boeing machinists strike This means that delivery of the remaining nine planes will likely be postponed to the January-March quarter.

The carrier initially planned 29 new jets before next year’s peak. Sorahan warned that other deliveries ahead of the all-important summer season could also be delayed. “I think some of them will slip.” We’re not going to have them all until summer 2025. We might have 15 (new planes). At this point, it makes sense to plan our business based on slower growth next year,” the CFO said.

Even if Ryanair reduced its passenger forecast, the 210 million figure would still represent a 5% increase in annual traffic. That’s up — but not as much as growth-hungry airline executives would like.

On Monday, the company confirmed that it plans to carry between 198 and 200 million passengers in the financial year ending in March 2025. As a reminder, by the mid-2030s, it wants to attract 300 million passengers per year.

O’Leary keeps the pressure on Boeing

On Monday morning, Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary also spoke. He described the delays as “a pain in the butt” as he continues to talk with the planemaker’s executives.

“We always work closely with Kelly OrtbergStephanie Pope, and the team to expedite deliveries as best we can. However, the risk of delays increases. I think we have to accept that we won’t get all of these 29 planes until the summer of 2025,” he said.

O’Leary wants to avoid a repeat of this summer when the airline was “overburdened with excessive schedules, crew and costs” due to a mismatch between resources and operations.

Like other affected customers, the Irish low-cost airline received compensation from Boeing for the delays. However, O’Leary questioned the amount and format of the financial relief. “We receive modest compensation, but Boeing wants to restructure the compensation to be in the form of maintenance credits. It’s not significant. “That certainly doesn’t make up for the loss of five million passengers, nor does it make up for the additional loss of five million passengers in (fiscal year) 2026.”

Earlier this year, the Federal Aviation Administration said it would not grant a production increase for the 737 Max program. This follows a serious incident on board an Alaska Airlines plane on January 5 when a door stopper exploded in mid-air. Even when the current machinists’ strike is resolved, the FAA’s decision will make it more difficult for Boeing to expedite deliveries to airline customers.

All eyes are on the Max 10

The Ryanair group had 172 Boeing 737 Max aircraft in service as of October 31. Its total fleet includes 608 aircraft. The company is keen to receive these new planes because they are cheaper to operate and can carry more passengers at a lower average cost than older models.

Following the handover to Ryanair of the current series of 737 Max 8 aircraft, no further deliveries are planned until 2027. These include the 737 Max 10 which has not yet been certified by aviation regulators . It is larger than the Max 8 and will be the largest aircraft in the Ryanair fleet.

Speaking on Monday, Sorahan seemed confident that despite supply chain issues and regulatory hurdles, Ryanair’s current schedule could be met.

“The Max 10 will not be certified until the (smaller) Max 7 is certified. We understand that the Max 7 is on track to be certified in the first half of 2025. If that happens, then I think there is a very good chance that the Max 10 will be certified in the second half of 2025. That will put us on track The route receives our first Max 10 in the first half of 2027,” said Ryanair’s CFO.

European ATC, a “mess”

Beyond plane bottlenecks, O’Leary also took issue with another of his favorite gripes, calling air traffic control across Europe this summer a “disaster.”

“We had record ATC delaysparticularly on the first wave of departures. This is due to ATC being understaffed and the staff they do have not showing up for work. This is completely unacceptable. There is no reason for the first wave of flights to be delayed, because there is nothing in the sky.”

O’Leary called for two changes to improve the situation: more ATC personnel, particularly for early morning departures, and the right for planes to fly over countries during domestic ATC strikes. “If (the European Commission) implemented these two simple measures, both of which are within its legal authority, you would eliminate around 90% of ATC delays, and there would be a huge environmental gain for the industry,” O said. ‘Leary. .

Ryanair’s average fares fell 10% in the six months to September 30. The airline cited consumer pressures over the cost of living and continued high interest rates as key factors. O’Leary said the decline in airfares “appears to continue to moderate,” but the airline “remains cautious about the third quarter average fare outlook.”

Ending on a more optimistic note, the Ryanair boss described forward bookings and demand for the current third quarter (October to December) as “strong”.

Skift has contacted Boeing for comment.