The Ukrainian War: a new battlefield for two Koreas: North Korea’s decision to send troops Russia’s arrival represents a significant shift in the regional and global geopolitical landscape, with consequences that extend well beyond the Ukrainian conflict. Although many focus on the immediate effects in Europe, the real issues lie in the impact on security in Northeast Asia, particularly the Korean Peninsula.

Strategic gains for North Korea

In exchange for its military support, North Korea could receive several benefits that could reshape its economic and military capabilities. Among them, hard currencies, reports suggesting that North Korean soldiers are paid about $2,000 each per month. This financial boost, combined with potential economic aid from Russia in the form of food and energy, will allow Kim Jong Un to advance his national agenda, particularly his ambitious 10×20 plan. rural development plan. Importantly, it allows the regime to mitigate the harsh effects of international sanctions, thereby strengthening Kim’s domestic leadership.

However, the biggest gain for North Korea may lie in Russia’s advanced military technology. Access Improved intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), hypersonic weapons, nuclear submarines and space weapons could significantly improve Pyongyang’s military capabilities. This enhanced deterrence could embolden North Korea in its military activities against South Korea and the United States, potentially destabilizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia as a whole.

Perhaps most worrying is the possibility that this deployment reflects a deeper commitment under the military treaty. sign between Pyongyang and Moscow in June 2024. This agreement could allow North Korea to send its soldiers four months after its signing, while also opening the door for Russia to send troops or military equipment to the Korean peninsula.

Such a move would further escalate tensions, potentially driving U.S. and Russian forces into a direct standoff on the Korean Peninsula, with disastrous consequences for global security.

South Korea’s response

South Korea views North Korea’s involvement in Russia as a direct and growing threat. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) in Seoul has publicly disclosed details of North Korean troop deployments in Russia, highlighting the seriousness of the situation and attracting worldwide attention. Seizing this opportunity, Seoul is now pursue strengthened military cooperation with NATO and the United States, particularly in the run-up to the American presidential election. Some fear that a change in U.S. foreign policy after the election could leave South Korea vulnerable, especially if the new administration seeks to engage with North Korea.

One emerging strategic option for South Korea could involve direct military support for Ukraine. While the idea of ​​sending troops or weapons to Ukraine was once unthinkable, it is becoming a viable option as Seoul seeks to counterbalance the growing crisis. North Korea-Russia axis.

Fighting North Korea in a third country could offer South Korea a way to avoid direct conflict on the peninsula, reducing the risk of catastrophic damage at home. South Korea’s move could spark debates in Europe and the United States over the potential deployment of troops to Ukraine, potentially reshaping their military strategies toward Russia. Meanwhile, the long-running debate over whether South Korea should develop its nuclear weapons is gaining momentum, driven by North Korea’s advances in nuclear technologies with support from Russia .

A high-stakes future for the two Koreas

For North Korea, its involvement in the war in Ukraine has become a question of regime survival. Pyongyang is betting big on a Russian victory, but if Russia loses, North Korea’s vulnerability would increase significantly due to the loss of a crucial economic and military ally.

For South Korea, the Yoon administration faces far-reaching challenges. With President Yoon Suk-yeol approval ratings languishing around 22-24%, North Korea’s actions could offer an opportunity to rally conservative support. By highlighting the growing threat posed by North Korea’s alliance with Russia, Yoon could bolster his image as a staunch defender of global and national security against Pyongyang and Moscow.

The war in Ukraine has now drawn the Korean peninsula into its orbit, and its implications are far-reaching. North and South Korea are positioning themselves in a broader great-power competition that is reshaping global security dynamics.

About the author:

Sangsoo Lee is a research associate at the European Center for North Korea Studies at the University of Vienna and founder of Strategic Linkages (SL. Dr. Lee was deputy director and head of the Stockholm Korea Center at the Institute for Security Policy and development (ISDP). His areas of interest are security and conflict issues in Northeast Asia, with a focus on the North Korean nuclear crisis and inter-Korean relations. Dr. Lee holds a PhD in Northeast Asian Studies from Peking University and has been a visiting scholar at Peking University. at the United Nations University (UNU-CRIS) (2007) and the London School of Economics (LSE) (2011).

Image credit: Creative Commons.