World leaders will launch U.N. climate talks next week, days after a U.S. election that could send shockwaves through global efforts to limit dangerous warming.

The stakes are high for the COP29 conference in Azerbaijan, where nations must agree on a new target for financing climate action across large parts of the world.

It comes during what is likely the hottest year in human history, which has already seen a series of devastating floods, heatwaves and storms around the world.

Countries are falling far short of meeting the needs needed to prevent warming from reaching even more dangerous heights in the future.

But leaders arriving in Baku face many challenges, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, trade conflicts and economic uncertainty.

Adding to the uncertainty, the US vote and the potential return of Donald Trump, who withdrew from the Paris Agreement and called climate change a “hoax”, could have repercussions for the negotiations and beyond .

“You can imagine that if Trump is elected and the election result is clear before we get to Baku, then there will be some sort of crisis moment,” said Li Shuo, a Washington-based climate diplomacy expert. the Asian Society Policy Institute.

He said countries, likely including China, are preparing to send a “clear message” for global climate cooperation if Trump defeats rival Kamala Harris to the White House.

Samoan diplomat Pa’olelei Luteru, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, said that whoever wins, “multilateralism is imperative.”

“Our islands are on the front lines, but we know that no country, large or small, is safe from increasingly severe and unprecedented weather consequences,” he said.

The UN negotiations are seen as key to laying the groundwork for a major new round of climate commitments due early next year.

Current commitments, even if fully implemented, would see the world warm to a devastating 2.6 degrees Celsius this century, the UN has said, surpassing the internationally agreed limit of 1. 5°C since the pre-industrial era.

“Baku’s decisions could profoundly shape the climate trajectory and determine whether 1.5 degrees of warming remains within reach,” said Cosima Cassel of the E3G think tank.

– Clash over money –

Azerbaijan, host of the Nov. 11-22 talks, has raised concerns about its heavy reliance on fossil fuels and its human rights record.

Countries pledged last year to abandon fossil fuels and triple the use of renewable energy by 2030.