A stretch of historic November heat is the order of the day in parts of southern Ontario this week as powerful southerly winds blow record temperatures across the region.

Forecasters are monitoring the development of a low pressure system in Texas that will help bring abnormally warm air north of the border, bringing temperatures more than 15 degrees above seasonal to parts of Ontario.

Gusts of wind and episodes of heavy rain will accompany this brief but intense warm-up.

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Historically warm night possible this week

The storm system will bring a warm front through the region Monday evening, forcing temperatures to rise more than 15 degrees above seasonable across the border.

Windsor will likely push up to 23 or 24 degrees Tuesday afternoon, with temperatures of 20 degrees extending to the Georgian Bay and Ottawa areas.

Although these daytime temperatures are well above normal, we experienced a recent November with similar, if not slightly warmer, temperatures.

Where this event becomes unprecedented is the minimum temperature between the pre-dawn hours Tuesday morning and the pre-dawn hours Wednesday morning.

During similar periods of unseasonably warm weather in 2020 and 2022, the temperature still managed to drop as low as 12 or 13 degrees during the nights.

Based on computer models, we are confident that the hottest night in November history will likely occur Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures may not drop below 15 degrees, or even 17 degrees, for a 24-hour period in the Niagara Peninsula and far southwestern Ontario.

Breezy conditions and wind to accompany the heat

This kind of heat doesn’t just happen this time of year. Exceptionally warm air is expected to be imported from the south, so it will be very windy at times as the Texas Low passes through the region.

Sustained winds will probably peak at more than 50 km/h on the Huron coast on Tuesday. These wind speeds are strong enough to cause isolated power outages, making driving a little more difficult and creating large waves on the Great Lakes.

Many southern Ontario communities have seen one of the driest Octobers on record This year, an unusual period of dry weather came in the middle of one of the wettest years in Toronto’s history.

As Toronto crawls to the finish line in wettest year on recordLittle rain is forecast for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), with only a few millimeters at most.

It’s a different story in Sault Ste. Marie, however, where more than 50 mm is likely, including Sudbury as well. Timmins and Sudbury may record one of the wettest November days on record, with more than 40mm forecast on Tuesday alone.

Don’t get too attached to the heat. We could see a brief dose of cool weather late next week and through the weekend, but above-seasonal temperatures will dominate through the middle of the month. An active trend is also expected to return during the second week of November with a storm track across the upper Great Lakes, helping to keep southern Ontario warmer than normal.

Stay with The Weather Network for the latest forecast updates for Ontario.

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