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In the seven swing states likely to decide Tuesday’s elections, the timing of results varies depending on each state’s laws and the volume of mail-in votes. are being reported in Georgia and North Carolina, although the final count could take days or weeks.

Key facts

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When can we expect results in the seven Swing States?

North Carolina: It will likely be one of the first states called, as the vast majority of ballots are expected to be counted by midnight on Election Day, said Jason Roberts, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina. Digital Fox. Polls close relatively early, at 7:30 p.m. EST, and officials process absentee ballots once a week from October 1 until Election Day. They are allowed to begin counting absentee ballots between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. on Election Day, but in-person early votes cannot be counted until the polls close.

Georgia: This state will also run quickly, with most votes counted within hours of polls closing at 7 p.m. EST. Officials were allowed to begin processing mail-in ballots on the third Monday before Election Day, Oct. 21, and counting them at 7 a.m. on Election Day. A new law passed this year requires counties to report early and absentee voting results by 8 p.m. on Election Day and report the number of uncounted ballots by 10 p.m.

Wisconsin: The state can begin processing mail-in ballots at 7 a.m. on Election Day and polls close at 9 p.m. EST. Election officials expect unofficial results late on Election Day or Wednesday, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. reported.

Michigan: Unofficial results expected the day after the election, according to Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson told reporters this week. Recent changes to election laws allow officials to begin processing ballots earlier than in the past, which could speed up results: Cities and townships with at least 5,000 residents can begin processing ballots postal voting eight days before the election, between 7 a.m. and 8 p.m., while the entire state can begin processing ballots Monday morning ahead of the election. Polls close in most of the state at 8:00 p.m. EST, but four counties in the Upper Peninsula are in the Central Time Zone and will continue voting until 9:00 p.m. EST.

Pennsylvania: The state may take longer than others to count ballots because election workers are prohibited from processing mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. Polls close at 8 p.m. EST. Results could take several days to be tabulated, as was the case in the 2020 election. Wait times could be shorter as fewer voters are expected to vote by mail than during the Covid-19 pandemic and some Counties have invested in new equipment to open and process ballots more quickly, Secretary of State Al Schmidt said. told WITF Radio in September.

Nevada: The state only releases results after the last voter in line, when polls close at 10 p.m. ET, has cast their ballot. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to faster results than in 2020, but a state law allowing day-postmarked mail-in ballots to be counted of the ballot if they are received before November 9 could lengthen. the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast absentee ballots.

Arizona: The state is one of the slowest battlegrounds to count ballots, and officials estimate it could take 10 to 13 days to complete the count, according to The Washington Post. Election workers count mail-in ballots as they are received, but do not begin processing mail-in ballots delivered on Election Day until after polls close at 9 p.m. ballast). An unusually long two-page ballot with 13 statewide ballot questions could also delay results.

Which states will be the first to communicate the results?

North Carolina and Georgia are expected to be the first swing states to release their results, which could indicate which candidate is likely to win. Trump has a slight advantage in both states, although most polls are within the margin of error and show a virtual tie.

What are the recount rules?

In Arizona and Pennsylvania, state laws order a recount if the candidates’ votes are within 0.5% of each other or less, while Pennsylvania also allows voters to request a recount in specific precincts where they expect fraud or error or in all constituencies, if there is no allegation of irregularity. Candidates can request a recount in Georgia if there is a difference of 0.5% or less between their vote shares, and the secretary of state’s office can order one if there are suspected errors or irregularities . Michigan is giving candidates more leeway to request a recount under new laws signed in August that allow them to do so if they are able to “claim to have a good faith belief that, but for an error in the count or the return of votes, the candidate would have a reasonable chance of winning. The losing candidate in Nevada can also request a recount within three days of the vote being certified, while North Carolina law allows them to request a recount if there is a difference of 1% or less between the vote totals. votes. Wisconsin allows candidates to request a recount if they lose by one percent or less and suspect a “defect, irregularity or illegality.”

Tangent

In a phenomenon known as a “red mirage,” early vote counting in some states on Election Day is likely to favor Trump as in-person ballots are counted, as Democrats tend to favor voting by mail. correspondence and the counting of mail-in ballots is often delayed, leading to what is known as a “blue shift.” At the same time, smaller, rural Republican-leaning districts are also more likely to report vote totals before larger urban districts. In a handful of other states like Georgia, mail-in ballots will be reported first, leading to a “blue mirage.”

Key context

The election for President Joe Biden was called on November 7, 2020, four days after Election Day, when Biden won Pennsylvania after the state placed him above the 270-vote threshold needed to secure victory. States generally took longer to count votes in the 2020 elections because large numbers of voters cast absentee ballots amid the Covid-19 pandemic. And even though early voting records broke records in several states, the share of mail-in votes is expected to decline this year. The 2016 election was called for Trump much more quickly, at 2:29 a.m. the day after the election, after he won Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes.

Further reading

Trump and Harris could face recounts in these Swing States (Forbes)

Swing State Polls for 2024 Elections: Harris, Trump Nearly Tied in 7 Battlegrounds — and A Tossup in Pennsylvania (Updated) (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 polls: near tie in latest HarrisX/Forbes survey, just days before election (Forbes)

Can Trump and Harris tie each other? It’s possible: here’s what would happen (Forbes)

These demographics could decide the Trump-Harris race in 7 battleground states (Forbes)