North Korean troops in Russia: advantages, but also risks for Moscow and Pyongyang – It has been widely reported that thousands of North Korean troopsthe exact number is unclear, are found in Russia and that some 8,000 people are now in Kursk where the U.S. government hopes they will soon join Russian troops in the combat effort to expel Ukrainian forces from the part of this Russian province still under control. Ukrainian occupation.

Moscow brought North Korean troops into Russian territory and even sent them to the battlefield because Putin hoped to profit from them. Although the North Korean deployment is minimal compared to the number of Russian troops on the front lines, their presence could save Moscow from having to redeploy its troops from inside Ukraine to Kursk. Furthermore, while the Kremlin may be concerned about the Russian public’s sensitivity to Russian losses, North Korean casualties are not a topic that worries ordinary Russians.

Finally, sending North Korean troops in response to Ukraine’s surprise seizure of Russian territory at Kursk may be intended to discourage the Ukrainians, especially as it raises the possibility that even more North Korean troops -Koreans and perhaps elsewhere join Russia in the fight against them.

For Pyongyang, the benefits of sending North Korean troops to Russia could include, as Michelle Ye Hee Lee points out: underlines in the Washington Post, much-needed cash for North Korea’s heavily sanctioned economy, Russian technological assistance for North Korean military production, including its nuclear program, and increased global attention for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un , which he would need.

Some also fear that Kum Jong Un will send his troops to Russia to gain combat experience that they could use against South Korea. Perhaps he even considers that sending North Korean troops to fight Russia’s enemies would force Moscow to send Russian troops to fight those of Pyongyang.

However, this deployment also carries potential costs for both Putin and Kim Jong Un. North Korean troops may prove more trouble than they are worth if they do not fight effectively and the Coordination between them and Russian troops is proving problematic, as some Russian troops have done. already recognized. It would also be embarrassing for Moscow and Pyongyang if North Korean troops found themselves defect to Ukraine then move to South Korea. Seoul already has raised the prospect to respond to the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia by supplying South Korean weapons to Ukraine.

Moscow and Pyongyang, however, continue to act despite these risks, either because they do not consider them so serious or because they believe that the potential benefits outweigh the costs.

Even if this calculation is correct, other risks could be more difficult for Moscow or Pyongyang to manage. While Putin has demonstrated a willingness to accept high levels of casualties among Russian troops, Kim Jong Un may be reluctant to send more North Korean troops if they end up being massacred in large numbers. After all, gaining battlefield experience for possible use against South Korea is only useful if North Korean soldiers survive fighting against Ukraine.

One of the risks Putin runs is that by inviting North Korean troops to Russia to fight Ukraine, kyiv opens the door to inviting troops from other countries to Ukraine to fight the Russians. Although most, if not all, NATO governments are unwilling to do so officially, “volunteers” from various NATO countries may arrive in increasing numbers.

Putin, however, may not be worried about the increased involvement of risk-averse NATO governments in the war in Ukraine. What should worry him, however, is the impact of reliance on North Korean troops on Russia’s image. that of Moscow dependence on Iran for armed drones and ballistic missiles as well as North Korea for artillery shells and now soldiers do little to strengthen Russia’s image as a great power.

As the war continues, will Russia become even more dependent on others for weapons and troops? What price will she have to pay for this? And what will happen if they stop being available?

The arrival of North Korean troops in Ukraine does not bode well either for Ukraine or for its Western supporters. But that might not work very well for Russia or North Korea either.

About the author:

Mark N. Katz is Professor Emeritus of Government and Politics at George Mason University, Global Fellow at the Wilson Center, and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Image credit: Creative Commons.