We are already one month after the start of the NHL season. The Toronto Maple Leafs are 11 games into their 82-game schedule, and they have yet to show anyone that they are better or worse than previous versions of the Maple Leafs. Realistically, this won’t be known until the playoffs, but for now, this team looks like the same good team, but not great, from years past.

Through these first 13 games, the Leafs have posted mixed results, going 6-5-2. They lost to The Columbus Blue Jackets and the Montreal Canadiensthe teams are expected to find themselves in last place in the Eastern Conference, and twice against the St. Louis Blues, who will miss the NHL playoffs. Yet they also beat the Tampa Bay Lightning, a solid team with a 7-3 record, and ended the Winnipeg Jets’ winning streak.

After starting 4-2 through their first six games and only giving up more than three goals once, new Maple Leafs bench boss Craig Berube has been praised for getting this group playing the “right way”.

However, the Maple Leafs quickly reversed course. They lost three straight games to the Blue Jackets, Blues and Boston Bruins, showing they are still inconsistent, before rebounding with two more convincing victories.

What to remember from the first month of the Toronto Maple Leafs NHL season

The only consistent narrative about this team is that it has improved defensively since the additions of Chris Tanev and Olliver Ekman-Larsson. However, this is not the case. This can easily be believed, if we consider Anthony Stolarz ranks second among goalies with 6.35 goals saved above expectations, but that hides many of the Leafs’ defensive shortcomings.

For context, here’s a chart I put together that illustrates how the Maple Leafs have performed in October in critical defensive stats over the past four seasons.

Statistics via NaturalStatTrick

When I first looked at this data, I expected a significant improvement. This was likely due to the focus on Bérubé’s new systems and new additions to the blue line. With all that has been talked about, it’s hard not to believe that they have improved defensively. But according to the statistics, little has changed.

What’s most notable is that the Maple Leafs have averaged the most expected goals per game in October compared to the first month of the year over the past three seasons. Their 3.13 expected goals allowed per game ranks 23rd in the NHL, and expected goals are one of the most predictive factors in predicting who will win the Stanley Cup. In fact, four of the last five Stanley Cup winners have ranked in the top five in expected goals at five-on-five throughout the regular season.

Now, the Leafs are allowing 3.13 expected goals per game this season. But that includes data while they’re outnumbered. But looking only at five-on-five data to match the Stanley Cup trend, the Maple Leafs defense is still far from where it should be. They allow 2.54 goals per game at even strength, which is 19th in the NHL.

Aside from the fact that the Leafs are allowing way too many expected goals to be sustainably considered a Stanley Cup contender, nothing else is too notable other than one fewer high-danger chance per game. Their defensive performance in the first month of the season was almost identical to the previous three years.

Even the little things that Bérubé has been preaching since he was hired have remained the same. For example, on a physical level, the Leafs are averaging five fewer hits per game through their first 11 games than in 2023-24. Another example is Bérubé who preaches smart decisions with the puck. Still, the Maple Leafs are averaging more turnovers per game and defensive turnovers per game than they have in the last two years (via MoneyPuck).

Although the focus is primarily on a struggling power play and a forward group that lacks depth, the Leafs remain one of the best offensive teams in hockey. At five-on-five, they average 3.35 goals and 2.86 expected goals per game, which ranks fifth and seventh in the NHL in those categories; the offense is doing its job.

The Maple Leafs still have the same defensive problems as in years past. The guards hid part of it at the start of the year. We’ve seen some encouraging things from Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson in the first month of the season, but seeing these numbers so similar to previous years after a month makes you think: have they done enough changes?