I would like to officially declare the victory of Kamala Harris in the US presidential elections.

The poll predictions still seem to be within the margin of error and perhaps I have been misled by an excess of left-wing propaganda, but I stand by my decision.

I offer three main reasons for this prediction: Trump’s age and (lack of mental acuity); how women will vote; and the internal Republican revolt against Trump. I would argue that each of these factors is unprecedented in American political history.

Before we get into these three factors, it’s worth pointing out that the potential for error when it comes to a prediction is especially notable given how many people were shocked when Donald Trump first won the presidency in 2016.

The victory surprised many, including his opponent Hillary Clinton – who many, in retrospect, considered overconfident. She probably just couldn’t believe in her heart that this reality TV buffoon actually posed a real threat.

I think it was Pete Buttigieg who quoted a friend of his as saying, “We made the mistake of taking Trump literally, when we should have taken him seriously.” »

Clinton’s underestimation of Trump may be to blame for this election. Is Harris making the same mistake?

An oft-cited example of Clinton’s overconfidence is the fact that she never even campaigned in the swing state of Wisconsin.

In contrast, Harris has been tireless on the campaign trail. She showed herself to be particularly persistent and tenacious in all swing states, respecting a grueling schedule.

She even made numerous campaign stops in states that many would even consider not in play, like Florida and Texas.

Harris also appears to have adopted a decidedly different campaign strategy than Clinton, particularly in terms of how she addresses issues of identity and gender.

Long story short, she seems to have learned from many of Clinton’s mistakes and actually takes Trump seriously, not underestimating him as an opponent.

However, the rest of America might have trouble taking Trump seriously, in a different sense – which brings us to the first of the three factors identified above.

Trump was 70 when he first won the presidency, and is now 78. Joe Biden is 81 now and 77 when he ran for president. Trump is now the oldest person to run for president of the United States.

For both men, there appears to have been significant and noticeable aging since their first bid for the presidency – particularly in terms of cognitive abilities and mental acuity. Perhaps the key word here is “remarkable.”

When Trump first ran in 2016, he was a new outsider running against a candidate associated with the establishment. He brought a new form of campaigning with elements of shock and awe that had virtually never been seen before in American politics.

In my opinion, fresh, new and exciting things always have an advantage when it comes to political campaigns, especially when they come up against something old.

Trump had exactly this advantage when he was still running against Biden, who looked increasingly decrepit before our eyes.

However, when the candidate switched from Biden to Harris, it was suddenly Trump who seemed like a bumbling old fool – a weird old man who kept mumbling the same old stale stories that everyone had heard a hundred times previously.

Where once a mighty lion might have stood, all that remained was a sickly, frail old cat.

In my 2016 naivety, I thought Trump was definitely done for when the tape came out where Trump talked about how he was just going to “grab women by the pussy.”

I have since developed my own theories about what an electorate will and will not tolerate.

My sense is that, perhaps on a subconscious level, voters are willing to “forgive” all kinds of behavior that might otherwise be considered socially or even politically unacceptable – as long as it conveys a sense of “strength.”

The word “strength” here can perhaps also be called “old-fashioned notions of masculine strength.” Perhaps Trump’s record with women subconsciously resonated with latent elements of male sexual aggression.

A similar principle applies to all criticisms that Trump is a strongman, a dictator, and a threat. Part of our brain may view them as “bad,” but other parts may view them as “dangerous, but in a good way.” Or, old-fashioned notions of masculine strength.

I’m not saying these things make Trump strong. I’m saying that this type of behavior can be unconsciously interpreted by many voters as a sign of some kind of “strength” that resonates with some of them.

So from a political communications perspective, I would never advise focusing on this line of attack against Trump.

Instead, I would focus on one element that I think voters really cannot tolerate or forgive in a potential leader: weakness and fragility.

The most effective attacks on Trump have portrayed him as a weak, scrappy old man who yaps incoherently about sharks and electric batteries — a man who wears too much makeup and can’t tell the difference between his ex- woman and rape victim in a photo.

I don’t think Trump will lose because he spreads lies about immigrants. I think he will lose because the lies he chooses to spread make him look like a crazy old man yelling at kids to get off his lawn.

There is an oft-quoted phrase that if your grandfather spoke and acted like this, you would take away his car keys, to prevent him from hurting himself or others.

The data suggests that voters can “forgive” a strong dictator, but they cannot forgive a senile elderly person who talks nonsense.

The second major factor that will likely lead Harris to victory is women’s votes.

Trump’s misogyny is the stuff of legend; but it didn’t get him as much criticism among women in 2016.

However, in 2024, on top of all the vanilla misogyny, we now have the overturning of the Roe v. Wade decision on abortion. The numerous abortion bans that followed in various states provoked a political upheaval not seen in a long time.

A key issue here is that when it comes to abortion, a line has been crossed – from ideology to people’s very lives. This question has become, in the most literal sense, a matter of life and death.

It was no longer an abstract debate about people’s beliefs. These were pregnant women dying in parking lots because they couldn’t access the medical care they needed – right here in the most powerful country in the world.

The third unprecedented factor we are seeing in this election is the internal revolt among Republicans.

I would argue that nowhere in all of American history has a presidential candidate been denounced by so many people within his own party.

Trump has managed to alienate and make enemies of many former and even current Republican elected officials. He was denounced by countless members of his cabinet and administration.

More importantly, everyday voters who have identified as Republicans their entire lives publicly declared that for the first time, they were going to vote for a Democrat because they simply couldn’t stand Donald Trump.

We’ve already seen Republicans vote for Democrats, and we’ve already seen Democrats vote for Republicans; but I’m sure we’ve never seen anything remotely resembling such a massive, public, organized “Republicans for Harris” movement before.

Overall, these factors convince me that things are looking good for Harris. Maybe I’m wrong, and who knows what happens on Election Day, but I think we’re finally going to see a strong black woman break through America’s last glass ceiling and turn the page on American era of this strange, sad, orange clown.

Nathaniel Tan is a strategic communications consultant working with Projek #BangsaMalaysia. He can be contacted at [email protected]. The opinions expressed here are those of the author alone.

The race is on: residents of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, cast their ballots at midnight, marking the first votes of the U.S. election. -AFP