SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Tropical Storm Rafael On Tuesday, it strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane as it swirled past the Cayman Islands and headed toward western Cuba.

This is further bad news for Cuba, which has been experiencing power outages as it recovered from another hurricane two weeks ago that killed at least six people on the eastern part of the island.

The storm was located 35 kilometers southeast of Little Cayman, Cayman Islands on Tuesday morning. It had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph) and was moving northwest at 15 mph (24 kph), according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Forecasters warned that Rafael was expected to hit Cuba on Wednesday after dumping rain on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. The center warned of flooding, storm surges and mudslides.

The US State Department issued an advisory for Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, offering departure flights to non-essential personnel and US citizens, and advising others to “reconsider travel to Cuba due to the potential impact of Tropical Storm Rafael.

On Tuesday morning, Cuban Civil Defense called on Cubans to prepare as soon as possible, because when the storm makes landfall, “it is important to stay where you are.” The day before, the authorities announced that they had issued an evacuation order for 37,000 people in the far east of Cuba, in the province of Guantanamo, due to bad weather.

A hurricane warning was in effect Tuesday for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila, as well as the lower and middle Florida Keys, from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and Dry Turtles. The warning was lifted in Jamaica after the storm passed the west coast. A tropical storm watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Authorities in the Cayman Islands closed schools and government offices to urge residents to prepare. Long lines were reported at grocery stores as the storm approached.

Forecasters warned that Rafael would trigger heavy rains in the western Caribbean, likely to cause flooding and mudslides in parts of Cuba and the Cayman Islands.

Heavy rain is also expected to spread northward toward Florida and neighboring areas of the southeastern United States by mid-to-late week. The Hurricane Center predicted that storm surges in Florida could reach 1 to 3 feet in Dry Tortugas and 1 to 2 feet in the Lower Florida Keys. A few tornadoes were also expected Wednesday across the Keys and southwest Florida.

AccuWeather says it’s waiting Rafael will make landfall Wednesday evening as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in western Cuba.

He adds that the storm will weaken in the Gulf of Mexico and the highest probability of landfall is along the central Louisiana coast. However, given that the directional breezes may change somewhat late this week and weekend due to the approach of a non-tropical storm from the south-central United States, there is a wide window as to where the landing will occur. The potential landing zone extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Texas coast.

Rafael is the 17th Storm named of the season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that the 2024 hurricane season will likely be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. Forecasts called for up to 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

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