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By Raf Casert and Justin Spike

BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — Dozens of European leaders will cautiously seek to chart a more common future at a one-day summit in the Hungarian capital on Thursday. Yet despite myriad economic challenges and two wars in the neighborhood, all eyes will be on Washington to see whether the crucial US elections will cause a political divide across the continent.

The transatlantic relationship will undoubtedly change after the vote, leaders and experts said. But the question is whether this change will be gradual under Kamala Harris or possibly seismic under Donald Trump.

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The impact of the American results could be felt in the years to come, on issues such as the war in Ukraine, the European Union’s trade relations with the rest of the world, migration, the conflict in the Middle East and climate change.

“All of this endangers peace, stability and prosperity in our region,” says the letter of invitation addressed to the leaders of the European Political Community, which brings together nearly 50 countries from Europe and its neighbors, to the exception of Russia and Belarus.

Among the leaders likely to be in attendance Thursday is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is expected to make a new plea for more aid as his country fends off Moscow’s invasion. The moment is fraught with significance since Trump has pledged to end the war “within 24 hours” of his election – which leaders in kyiv interpret as an imminent evaporation of American support in the event of a Trump victory.

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Orban shows his support for Trump

Not so long ago, such a meeting – also expected to be attended by leaders of third countries such as Turkey, Serbia and the UK – would end with praise for European unity and strong leadership common policy. Yet with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as summit host, friction is all but assured.

Orban, who openly supported Trump and said the former president was a “man of peace,” predicted a Trump victory and suggested that the civil and criminal cases against him were the result of a Ministry of Justice Politically motivated justice – a common practice. Trump abstains.

After playing the role of obstructionist for years in the EU27, Orban now holds the bloc’s rotating presidency, giving him a bigger platform and making him host of the EU summit. Thursday’s EPC, as well as another gathering of EU leaders on Friday.

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Orban’s presidency has caused turmoil from day one, when he declared “Make Europe Great Again” as the motto of his six months in office. It was a surprisingly clear reference to his affection for Trump, which he followed up with unannounced visits to Moscow and Beijing, angering European leaders who said he was not acting on their behalf. name.

In response to Orban’s so-called “peace mission”, many EU countries began boycotting presidential meetings in Budapest, or sending only lower-level bureaucrats rather than ministers. However, no boycott is expected for this week’s summits.

While Orban presented the outcome of the US elections as decisive for the future of Europe (he even delayed the adoption of the Hungarian national budget for 2025 until a new president was elected), all European leaders are uncomfortable with the fate of the bloc being so closely tied to movements in American politics.

Donald Tusk, Poland’s center-right prime minister, said Europe must chart a more independent course that is less sensitive to changes across the Atlantic.

“Some say that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, but above all it depends on us, provided that Europe finally grows and believes in its own strength,” Tusk said a few days before the summit . “Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over. »

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