MPs, diplomats and political staff gathered around the Parliamentary Precinct to anxiously review the preliminary results of a U.S. presidential election that they all agreed would have a huge impact on Canada and the world.

“There’s a lot of nervous energy in the room tonight,” said Gary Keller, who served as chief of staff to John Baird, the former Conservative foreign minister.

“This has a huge potential impact on our economy, our society.”

American voters cast their ballots Tuesday in a race between very different visions of their country’s future, with either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris voting. Both men proposed policies that could disrupt trade with Ottawa’s closest trading partner and have profound implications for Canada’s defense.

As the results were shown on big screens, Keller expressed concern about an election “on a razor’s edge.”

“Canadian businesses simply need to prepare for some challenges over the next four years, no matter who wins,” said Keller, vice-president of government relations firm StrategyCorp.

He noted that both Trump and Harris campaigned on protectionist policies, which could pose a significant threat to the Canadian economy.

Trump has pledged to impose across-the-board tariffs of 10 percent, which the Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimates could cost the Canadian economy about $30 billion a year.

In 2020, Harris was one of 10 senators who voted against the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. She recently said the CUSMA deal did not adequately protect American jobs.

Before results-watching parties began at bars surrounding Parliament Hill, the federal Liberals told reporters they had spent months laying the groundwork to put Ottawa in a better position to manage the negotiations trade with the next American president than during Trump’s first term.

At that point, the Liberals took a “Team Canada” approach of bringing together prime ministers, mayors, unions and business leaders with their American counterparts, as Trump called for ending the agreement NAFTA trade.

This push allowed Canada to retain much of its key access under CUSMA. Whoever takes the helm of the White House will oversee the planned review of this agreement in 2026.

Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said the government would use its Team Canada approach to defend Canadian interests and that she was also in contact with other foreign ministers and world leaders on how to work with the next president.

“We have the strongest and, I think, most important relationship as a country with the United States,” Joly said.

Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne said the goal in recent months has been to define Canada as an essential and strategic partner, not just a friendly neighbor to the north.

“National security and economic security are at the center of the concerns of our American friends. I think we understand better today that the strategic relationship that we maintain serves the national security of North America,” declared Champagne.

Still, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Canada, Rick Tachuk, said various irritants in bilateral relations could lead Washington to restrict trade, such as regulation of energy, defense and digital services.

“There are a whole host of critical issues that we need to partly resolve before we proceed with the CUSMA review in 2026,” he said. adding that the composition of the House of Representatives will also greatly shape U.S. economic policy toward Canada.

Iceland’s Ambassador to Canada, Hlynur Gudjonsson, said his country was impressed by Ottawa’s ability to maintain strong trade ties during Trump’s first term.

While he expects good relations with Trump or Harris, he said his country wonders how a Trump presidency will approach the NATO military alliance.

Trump has been highly critical of NATO allies – particularly those, like Canada, that are failing to meet the agreed-upon spending target – accusing them of not doing their part and calling the alliance “obsolete “.

Canada does not plan to reach the goal of spending 2% of its GDP on defense until at least 2032.

Harris said his administration would honor mutual defense pacts and continue to strongly support Ukraine.

Defense Minister Bill Blair said he believed either administration would recognize the work Canada has done to increase defense spending.

“It takes time to build new battleships, it takes time to build the new submarines that we will need and to deliver the aircraft that we need,” Blair said.

Gudjonsson said concerns about NATO likely added to a European tendency to move closer to Democrats than Republicans.

“Kamala Harris would be very happy if Icelanders voted for her,” he said. “That’s the case in Europe, I think, in general.”

A handful of European diplomats declined to comment on the race, anxiously scrutinizing the vote count between a sip of beer and a cocktail.

Liberal MP Jean Yip said she was nervous about the results.

“I hope everything goes well; we’re keeping our fingers crossed that everything goes well,” said the Toronto MP.

“We just want the best president possible, for Americans and for Canadians,” she said, without specifying who that would be.

Earlier, Joly noted that his government had worked with three different US administrations over the past decade and had built relationships with both Republicans and Democrats.

However, it is not certain that a government led by Justin Trudeau will represent Canada in trade negotiations. It is possible that a precarious Parliament could trigger early elections before negotiations begin in earnest.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said Tuesday on social media that a Conservative government would “have tough negotiations” with Washington on softwood lumber and buy American policies.

During question period, Poilievre attacked the Liberals for their failure to reach a deal with the United States to end tariffs on softwood lumber, and accused the government of capitulating to the Americans during the latest round of trade negotiations.

Trudeau responded in French that “it was the Conservatives, including Stephen Harper, who encouraged us to back off and not offend the Americans” during the CUSMA negotiations.

“On the contrary, we defended ourselves, we protected supply management, we protected steel and aluminum workers, we protected jobs across the country,” declared the Prime Minister.

David Cohen, the U.S. ambassador to Canada, said in an interview that he sees trade relations continuing with little disruption, regardless of who wins the election.

“I haven’t heard any president in my life, and I certainly haven’t heard Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, say we want to blow up this $3.4 billion a day trade relationship that exists between the United States and Canada,” Cohen said.

“So the Team Canada approach that Canada uses — I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — is a powerful outreach mechanism that is useful for doing outreach and communication with a variety of stakeholders and constituents who all have a role to play. role to play in maintaining and developing relations between the United States and Canada, regardless of the presidential election. »

Cohen added that Canada is the largest trading partner of 36 states and he doubts any administration would want to jeopardize the millions of jobs linked to this cross-border trade.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published November 5, 2024.

— With files from Kelly Geraldine Malone