There is no glimmer of hope for the Democrats.

Donald Trump won everywhere and he will win the popular vote.

He did better across the board demographically – expanding his coalition with black, Latino and young voters.

The United States has become less racially divided by party.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris underperformed Joe Biden virtually everywhere, while Trump improved on his 2020 margin in 2,367 counties.

Its margin only declined in 240 counties.

Why was Trump so successful?

Trump didn’t just sweep key states, and none of them will be that close.

He closed the gap on Harris in a ton of blue states.

She scored anemic victories in New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Minnesota, while he widened his margins in red states to score big generational victories in Florida and Iowa.

He flipped Miami Dade County, winning a heavily Latino county that Hillary Clinton carried by 30 to 10 points in 2016.

It has reduced Harris’ margins in major urban centers around the world, including Chicago, New York and Austin.

What did the Democrats do wrong?

1. Biden stayed too long
2. Lack of a primary process, meaning Democrats did not have the opportunity to choose someone not associated with the Biden-Harris administration – which also denied them the opportunity to properly develop a message.
3. Withdrawal from Afghanistan (Biden’s polls never recovered)
4. Too much (somewhat) inflationary stimulus spending during COVID
5. Management of the Israeli war in Gaza
6. Long-term attrition of the ethnic minority voter base without corresponding improvement among white voters
7. Trump’s lingering political appeal and Democrats’ confusion over how to handle him.

How much of a loss is this?

This represents a far more devastating loss for Democrats than in 2016.

That year, they had a lot to console them: a massive popular vote victory, a narrow Electoral College defeat in a few places, a rock-solid ethnic minority coalition that looked like a solid electoral card for the future.

Roe vs. Wade was intact and the Supreme Court was still balanced.

They don’t have any of that anymore.

Instead, they have their eyes on a transformed Republican Party and a continuing inability to know how to deal with Trump and MAGAism.

In political terms, they have nowhere to go.

During Biden’s term, they governed exactly according to their own instincts – and this was soundly rejected by the electorate.

What does this mean for Trump?

This victory cements Trump’s position as a key American political figure of this century.

Biden thought he would restore the old order – but Trump assured it would be its last gasp.

The Republican Party is now definitively MAGA and the Democrats will change too: the old liberal order will not return.

Economic policy will be more protectionist in all directions, both parties more isolationist, politics more aggressive, and Democrats less likely to choose history-making candidates.

Politics will look more like Trump’s in the future, not least because his movement now has a natural heir and successor in JD Vance, an ambitious young vice president.

Meanwhile, Democrats have no obvious leader.