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During the election campaign, Donald Trump pledged to get rid of the US Department of Educationexpand school choice, roll back new protections for LGBTQ students, and deport millions of undocumented immigrants.

Now that the former Republican president is headed for a second term, the question is how likely it is that Trump will follow through on his most extreme or implausible proposals and what effects students, teachers and parents will see in class.

Trump won a decisive victory, bringing together nearly every key state and gaining ground among young voters and voters of color who have been vital members of the Democratic coalition.

Chalkbeat spoke with advocates, experts, and former Department of Education officials about what to expect from the next administration. They largely agreed that President Joe Biden’s rewrite of Title IX, which extended new protections for transgender students and is currently tied up in courtwill be repealed, that the enforcement of civil rights will be very different, and that future education budgets will be more austere.

But they disagree on how likely Trump is to abolish the U.S. Department of Education and how much progress he might make toward federal support for school choice.

Much will depend on who controls Congress. Votes are still being counted in key elections, but Republicans will control the Senate. Control of the House remains unclear and may not be known for several days. A winning trio could pave the way for a broader Trump agenda. If Democrats take control of the House, Trump will have to rely more on his executive power. But even on some key conservative priorities, Republicans are not unanimous, and some may balk at proposals they see as expanding the federal role or disadvantaging their constituents.

Trump’s pick for education secretary whether he opts for an experienced administrator or a dedicated culture warrior – will also shape its education program.

Calls to abolish the Ministry of Education gain new momentum

This is arguably Trump’s most consistent education policy promise, but also the one that seems most far-fetched to some political observers. Conservatives have been talking about getting rid of the department for almost as long as it has existed, and Trump took no steps to dismantle it during his first administration.

Completely dismantling the department would require an act of Congress. But Trump could limit his reach in other ways, such as eliminating or moving programs, firing career bureaucrats and proposing much tighter budgets.

But Jim Blew, who served in Trump’s Education Department in his first administration and later founded the Defense of Freedom Institute, said Trump insisted he wanted to get rid of the department and that it alone gives more “weight” to the idea. Blew also believes that public support for a federal role in education is changing. Many people don’t think the federal investment in post-Covid recovery has achieved much, he said. At the same time, people see initiatives like student loan forgiveness and protections for transgender students as examples of the federal government overreaching.

It would take months to dismantle the department, Blew said, because each function mandated by Congress would need a new headquarters. But it could be done, he said. Civil rights enforcement could, for example, be moved to the U.S. Department of Justice, and Title I funding for high-poverty schools could become a block grant administered by the U.S. Department of Human Services.

Trump has made clear his priorities are economic recovery, immigration and national defense, Blew said, but that doesn’t mean he won’t deliver on his education promises.

“It doesn’t require a lot of attention,” Blew said. “This needs political capital. And he can spend that while remaining focused on other priorities.

Immigration enforcement could impact school communities

Trump has made the demonization of immigrants the centerpiece of his campaign, highlighting at every turn examples of crimes committed by undocumented immigrants or asylum seekers and the impact of immigration on communities and American schools.

Trump has promised to carry out the largest deportation operation in American history. Some immigration policy experts have said such an effort would be legally and logistically difficult, as well as very expensive. Nevertheless, most observers expect an increase in law enforcement measures.

Previous workplace raids have had widespread repercussions impacts on students whose parents have been arrested, as well as the community at large. An estimated 4.4 million American children have at least one undocumented parent, and some former Trump immigration officials have done so. suggested that families be deported together.

Mike Petrilli, president of the conservative education advocacy organization The Fordham Institute, says Trump’s education policies won’t make much difference in American classrooms, but his immigration policies could have consequences dramatic.

“This is what he campaigned for, this is what he promised to do, and he would have a free hand to do it,” said Petrilli, who argued that American schools have a moral obligation as well as legal to educate all. the children who live here.

“The chances of this being a humanitarian disaster are very high,” Petrilli said. “Is he going to put people in camps? Will this include families? Will there be schools in these camps? I see no reason why we should believe they won’t try.

Even if enforcement is spotty, changes to federal policy can cause confusion and chaos in local communities, said Janelle Scott, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. Some families may keep their children at home out of fear, she said. The messages that local law enforcement and school district officials send to families in this situation could make a difference.

Transgender students could lose new protections as civil rights enforcement changes

When the Biden administration issued new Title IX rules that clarified and strengthened protections for transgender students, Republican states and conservative groups, including Blew’s Defense of Freedom Institute, quickly filed lawsuits that led to the blocking of the rules in a majority of States.

Conservatives argued that the new rules eroded protections for cisgender girls because they might have to share bathrooms and locker rooms with transgender classmates and affected the free speech of teachers who might be forced to use pronouns and names they disagreed with. They also argued that the Biden administration had overstepped the definition of discrimination based on gender identity as a form of sex discrimination.

Trump would have to repeal Biden’s rules, a move that would still require a lengthy bureaucratic process. But some observers have greater fears about a Trump administration. He has repeatedly accused schools of performing gender surgeries without parental permission – a false and baseless claim – and attacked the idea of ​​gender-affirming care for young people, as well as sports participation transgender athletes.

“There have been some fantastic claims, but underpinning this is deep hostility towards queer children as well as allegations that schools engage in child abuse if they protect the rights of queer children,” said Scott, a professor at UC Berkeley.

The first Trump administration also revoked Obama-era guidelines on school discipline that aimed to reduce suspensions and expulsions of students of color and emphasized prompt resolution of complaints. Some conservative groups have also used civil rights complaints to attack programs aimed at supporting black student excellence or mentoring teachers of color.

Rick Hess, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said a Trump Department of Education or Justice Department could provide high-profile examples of diversity initiatives by a few school districts and provoke controversy. more widespread changes, in the same way that the Obama administration targeted districts. on school discipline.

School choice gets a slight boost

Increasing public funding for private schools and home schooling has been a priority for conservatives on education in recent years. A proposed federal tax credit scholarship program, supported by Trump’s first Education Secretary, Betsy DeVos, failed to gain traction. But during Biden’s presidency, Republican-led states have expanded or launched private school choice programs, some of which offer money to almost any interested family.

On Fox News, Trump promised to sign school choice legislation that passed a House committee, and at a Bronx barbershop he spoke about the importance of school choice. school.

Blew expects Trump to push for a tax credit proposal similar to one drafted during his first presidency.

Petrilli isn’t convinced Trump cares that much. “It’s an exaggeration to say that he made it a priority during his election campaign,” he said. “We need to remind him to talk about it.”

Petrilli also isn’t convinced there would be enough support, even in a Republican-controlled Congress, to send a bill to Trump’s desk. Some rural Republicans, whose voters have few private school options, are skeptical. The same goes for small conservative governments that don’t want to expand federal programs.

Voters in three states – two of which Trump won by wide margins – school choice rejected during the ballot Tuesday, indicating that even many conservatives are reluctant to spend public money on private schools.

But Congress will have to reauthorize the Trump tax cuts, and a tax credit allowing businesses and individuals to write off donations to private scholarships could be included. Observers also expect to see a push to allow families to use money in tax-advantaged 529 accounts to pay for homeschooling expenses, tutoring and other educational needs. This money can already be used for private school tuition.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

Erica Meltzer is Chalkbeat’s national editor based in Colorado. Contact Erica at [email protected].