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    • NHC Tracks Hurricane Rafael, Disturbance. See the impacts in Florida
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    NHC Tracks Hurricane Rafael, Disturbance. See the impacts in Florida

    Pabio Posted on

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    Today maybe Election day, but Florida residents watch warily Hurricane Rafael.

    The November storm strengthened to hurricane-force winds, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Rafael is expected to intensify rapidly over the next day before reaching Cuba.

    ➤ Spaghetti Patterns for Storm Rafael

    ➤ Weather alerts by SMS: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

    While current forecasts indicate the storm will move toward the northern Gulf Coast – and weaken into the Gulf of Mexico – this This does not mean that Florida will not feel any impact. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the lower and middle Florida Islands Wednesday and Wednesday evening.

    Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is also tracking a disturbance in the southwest Atlantic with a low chance of development. AccuWeather forecasters said so could become a depression or tropical storm this week.

    The next named storm of the season will be Sara.

    Here is the latest update from the NHC as of 7 p.m. on Tuesday, November 5:

    Hurricane Rafael: what you need to know

    Special feature of the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm center. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

    Spaghetti Patterns for Hurricane Rafael

    Special note regarding spaghetti models: The illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are equal. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help it make its forecasts.

    ➤ Spaghetti Patterns for Tropical Storm Rafael

    Impact of Hurricane Rafael in Florida

    “The good news is that although Rafael may well enter the Gulf as a hurricane mid-week, there is a very low chance of the storm occurring. reach land like a hurricane,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

    For the Florida peninsula, Rafael will make his closest approach Wednesday and Thursday evening.

    “If the storm strengthens further through Wednesday, it will likely pass a little closer to Florida, but under all scenarios it should stay well southwest of the Keys,” Truchelut said.

    “The main impact of the storm on Florida will be an increased chance of rain between Wednesday and the weekend.”

    Tropical storm conditions are expected Wednesday in the lower and middle islands of Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center.

    ➤ Florida hurricane forecast: With Rafael rumbling, storm-hit state expected to see only rain

    Heavy rain will spread northward into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States by mid to late week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.

    A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across the Keys and southwest mainland Florida,

    What else is there and how likely are they to strengthen?

    Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

    • Southwest Atlantic: A low pressure area could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a few days.
    • Thereafter, slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week as it moves generally westward over the southwest Atlantic.
      • Chance of training over 48 hours: low, close to 0%.
      • Chance of training over seven days: low, 20 percent.

    What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

    Hatched areas on a tropical map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

    The colors clearly indicate the likelihood of a system developing, with yellow being low, orange being medium, and red being high.

    The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

    “If a system is close to land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue advisories, even if the system has not become a full storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

    Who is likely to be impacted?

    Some areas of Florida could feel some impacts, including tropical storm force winds, 1 to 3 inches of rain and even a threat of tornadoes from Tropical Storm Rafael.

    ➤ Excessive precipitation forecast

    ➤ Florida hurricane forecast: With Rafael rumbling, storm-hit state expected to see only rain

    AccuWeather meteorologists said the system in the southwest Atlantic could become a depression or tropical storm as it approaches the Leeward Islands and moves along the northern Caribbean islands this week.

    Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and always be prepared. These tips are particularly important for what should be a very active hurricane season.

    Weather Watches and Warnings Issued in Florida

    When is hurricane season in the Atlantic?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms past near your city

    Excessive precipitation forecast

    Stay informed. Receive weather alerts by SMS

    What’s next?

    We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.

    Pabio
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