Rafael strengthened into a Category 2 and then Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday. A Category 3 storm, classified as a major hurricane, has winds of 111 to 129 mph, according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Rafael is expected to move toward the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday evening and cross the Gulf this weekend.

Rafael is expected to bring a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds and flash flooding to parts of western Cuba, forecasters warned.

A hurricane warning concerns the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Island of Youth. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, as well as the lower and middle Florida Keys, from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and the Dry Tortugas.

Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba on Wednesday evening.

Rafael will dump heavy rain in the western Caribbean through Thursday morning, with 4 to 8 inches expected in western Cuba, with isolated higher totals of up to 12 inches over higher terrain, which will result in flash flooding and mudslides. Storm surges could also raise water levels “as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of outflow winds” along Cuba’s southern coast, the NHC said .

In the United States, tropical storm conditions are expected in the lower and middle islands of Florida on Wednesday evening.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and middle Florida Keys. Several tornadoes are also possible through Wednesday evening across the Florida Keys and far southwest mainland Florida.