HOUSTON – Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba as a powerful Category 3 storm with winds of 185 km/h.

At 4 p.m. Wednesday, it is moving northwest at 13 mph, which will take it into the Gulf of Mexico.

It is expected to move further into the Gulf and the forecast cone might look a little ominous in Southeast Texas.

There are several reasons why we do not expect this to have a direct impact on the Houston area.

Where is Rafael going?

Weak steering currents allowed Rafael to turn westward. This corresponds to what one of the models, the European model, had announced in recent days.

Rafael is expected to continue moving toward the western Gulf of Mexico, but there are factors working against it, both in terms of movement and strength, that should prevent it from having a direct impact on our region.

First, Rafael is expected to begin to weaken as it sinks deeper into the Gulf. The waters are now cooler than they were earlier in the year and will be less conducive to an intensifying storm. So, regardless of Rafael’s final destination, the system will most likely be much weaker by the time he gets to where he ultimately goes. In fact, it is possible that Rafael may never make landfall as an organized system, as it could collapse in the Gulf.

Second, the steering mechanism breaks down as Rafael moves into the Gulf. This will allow Rafael to wander around the Gulf a bit. This would be a problem if it happened near shore or on land, but at the moment it looks like it will be too far offshore to be a problem, in addition to increased surf and rip currents on the beaches of the region.

On top of that, it looks like a cold front will enter the picture early next week, preventing Rafael from moving north into Texas.

Ultimately, it’s worth watching, but the data we have now gives us confidence that Rafael won’t be a huge problem for Southeast Texas and maybe not even the entire state of Texas.