Allan Lichtman, the political historian often called the “Nostradamus of Elections,” found himself eating a humble pie in front of a live audience. The 77-year-old professor, famous for accurately predicting the US presidential elections, was caught off guard when his predictions for the 2024 election turned out to be wrong.

The “keys to the White House” that led to failure

During a livestreamed session with his son Sam, Lichtman watched in disbelief as the results came in, showing Donald Trump heading to a landslide victory. “I don’t understand,” Lichtman muttered repeatedly, clearly having difficulty processing this shocking data. As the night wore on, his frustration grew and he jokingly said, “Luckily I don’t have anything to do tomorrow.” And I don’t do any interviews.

Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” system has been his preferred method of predicting election results since 1984. His method is based on a series of 13 factors (or “keys”) that can tip the scales in favor of a candidate. For the 2024 elections, Lichtman was convinced Kamala Harris had the upper hand, ticking off eight of the keys in his favor. Meanwhile, Donald Trump only scored three.

He has been faithful to his predictions most of the time, with only two failures: the 2000 elections and now the 2024 elections.

Lichtman’s final thoughts

As the night wore on and the results became clearer, Lichtman’s mood shifted from confusion to worry. At one point he muttered, “Oh, democracy is over.” His frustration came not only from the fact that his predictions were wrong, but also from the state of democracy in general. “Once democracy is gone, it is almost impossible to recover. The path to recovery is for dictators to lose wars,” he said, his voice heavy with worry.

His son, Sam, tried to lighten the mood by saying that after Trump’s term ends, they would never have to deal with him again. Lichtman, however, was not yet ready to see the bright side of things. “Democracy is precious, but like anything precious, it can be destroyed,” he replied. “And throughout the 21st century, democracy has declined everywhere, and America has now followed suit. But never lose hope.

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