Economy, immigration, mandate: As the dust just begins to settle on a brutal U.S. election campaign, experts have highlighted the key headwinds that have helped explain why Kamala Harris failed to block Donald Trump to win back the White House.

For the latest news on the US elections, bookmark it The South African site section dedicated to free content

Economic malaise

Democratic strategist James Carville explained Bill Clinton’s 1992 victory with the phrase “The economy, stupid!” »

Thirty years later, the maxim has held, with Vice-President Harris failing to convince American voters hit by soaring inflation during her term alongside Joe Biden in the White House.

The Democrats’ heavy loss follows similar setbacks for incumbent parties around the world during a wave of inflation in the post-pandemic period.

Although U.S. economic data has steadily improved in recent months, surveys have continued to show largely negative sentiment among voters, and Trump has continued to hammer Harris on the campaign trail over high product prices. food and gasoline.

“People still (see) inflation as a problem, because they don’t think about the annual rate like economists do, but in terms of price levels,” said Bernard Yaros of Oxford Economics.

“It can upset people to find that basic necessities are taking up a much larger share of their household budget,” he told AFP.

Immigration wave

As in his 2016 upset, immigration was “clearly a factor” in Trump’s 2024 victory, said Carl Tobias, a professor at the University of Richmond Law School.

This time, Trump also promised to launch a mass deportation operation to expel the millions of immigrants who arrived in the United States under the Biden-Harris administration.

Illegal border crossings have plummeted in recent months after Biden issued a strict executive order, but it was after record numbers over the last year that Trump and other Republicans denounced an “invasion.”

Kamala Harris, whose portfolio included immigration issues in Central America, argued that Trump used his influence with Republican lawmakers to defeat a bipartisan border bill for political purposes.

Republicans argued the border bill was too little and too late.

Ultimately, voters sided with the Trump camp.

Demographic changes

A preliminary exit poll showed Harris winning about 40 percent of white voters, more than 80 percent of black voters and about half of Hispanics and Asians.

Although Trump did not win a majority of any non-white group, according to the same polls, his support among African Americans increased by single digits and jumped by double digits among Hispanics – a deeply worrying trend for Democrats.

“We have clearly seen among Mexican-American men, evangelicals, non-college graduates, the working class … a steady movement toward Trump,” said Professor Roberto Suro of the University of Southern California in Annenberg.

The trend could also be seen “geographically along the border and in places where that has been very directly impacted by this new migration,” he added.

Against all expectations, Trump did better than in 2020 with women – although the right to abortion is a key issue of the campaign – and with young people.

Late entry

Biden, who would have been 82 on Inauguration Day, sparked concern among many Democrats last year when he announced his decision to seek re-election.

But no major contender has chosen to challenge him for the party nomination, and any mention of his possible mental or physical decline has been dismissed by the White House.

But a disastrous debate against Trump in June triggered a crisis as concerns about his mental acuity boiled over, with intense pressure from the party ultimately leading Biden to withdraw.

Kamala Harris quickly claimed the mantle, but she had only three months left to revive a lagging campaign.

“Much of this Democratic disaster can be blamed on Joe Biden. He should never have attempted to run for office when he was 80 years old, ultimately leaving Harris to manage a short-lived replacement campaign that proved insufficient,” said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia.

Biden Baggage

Harris has struggled to differentiate herself from Biden and his unpopularity.

The vice president found herself caught on Oct. 8, when a host of the ABC talk show “The View” asked her what she would have done differently than Biden. After a moment of hesitation, she said, “Nothing comes to mind.”

The exchange turned out to be “disastrous” for the Democratic candidate, as David Axelrod, a former adviser to Barack Obama, declared on CNN on Wednesday.

Trump, who complained that campaigning against Biden would have been easier, didn’t miss his chance, playing the clip at his rallies and featuring it in numerous television ads.

Can you think of any other contributing factors?

Let us know by clicking on the comment tab below this article or by emailing [email protected] or by WhatsApping 060 011 021 1

Subscribe to the newsletters of the South African site and follow us on @TheSAnews on X And The South African on Facebook for the latest news.

By Garrin Lambley © Agence France-Presse