No matter who occupies the White House, Europe must become more independent and more resilient. This was warned by Charles Michel, President of the European Council, in an interview with DW in July during the fourth summit of the European Political Community (EPC) in the United Kingdom. Today, in the wake of the US presidential election, the EPC and its 47 member states are meeting in Budapest.

The main questions at the summit are: how will Europe handle the electoral victory of conservative nationalist Donald Trump? And how will a Republican administration affect support for Ukraine, NATO security guarantees and efforts to stave off the Russian threat in Europe?

In his invitation letter to the Hungarian EPC summit, Michel wrote that global crises – he cites Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, violence in the Middle East, conflicts and instability in Africa , weakened global economy and irregular migration – “put peace, stability and prosperity under threat in our region.

Hungary ruffles diplomatic feathers

The summit’s co-organizer is right-wing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and his country currently also holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union. Until now, he has been the only strong supporter of Donald Trump among heads of state and government. He has already called the erratic former president’s return to power a “victory for the world.”

Just this summer, Orban infuriated his colleagues when he embarked on a self-described “peace mission” that included kyiv, Moscow, Beijing and Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida home. He then claimed that Trump would be able to end Russia’s war in Ukraine in just a few days.

He added that he, Orban, was the only national leader in Europe who wanted peace.

In response, European Union (EU) leaders have staged a sort of slowdown strike, with only a handful of ministers and no EU commissioners attending an informal ministerial meeting that EU President Hungary is hosting also in Budapest.

Was Donald Trump invited?

Apparently, Orban has stepped up his diplomatic provocations, with reports suggesting he has arranged for President-elect Trump to join EU leaders via video link. EU diplomats had already strongly rejected this proposal during the preparations for the summit.

Orban responded by threatening to cancel a planned video conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. It is not known whether the latter will now attend the summit in person.

Zelensky hopes to convince EPC and EU members to send more aid to his country if the United States withdraws financial and military support from Ukraine in January, when Trump is expected to take office. During the election campaign, Trump had already announced such intentions.

EU prepares for US tariffs

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and many other European leaders congratulated Trump and announced that they wanted to see their partnership with the United States continue.

Beyond these diplomatic formalities, the EU has long been preparing economic policies to respond to a second Trump presidency. In closed-door working groups, the European Commission and member states have drawn up countermeasures in case the outgoing president imposes tariffs on goods imported from the EU, as he has threatened to do it.

The United States is one of the main destinations for German exports. The Munich-based Leibniz Institute for Economic Research estimates that Trump’s tariffs could cost the German economy 33 billion euros ($35.4 billion).

Can the EU gain economic ground?

Just after the EPC summit on Thursday, the 27 EU heads of state and government will meet on Friday for an informal meeting to discuss how to make the European economy more competitive with China and UNITED STATES.

EU Foreign Affairs Committee head warns of trade war with US

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In September, Italian economist and former head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi presented a roadmap on “The future of European competitiveness“, which requires hundreds of billions of euros of investment. There are deep disagreements within the bloc over where this money will come from, but a new round of collective debt seems out of the question.

Of particular concern is Germany’s declining economy, which is on the verge of a recession and could drag the rest of Europe into an economic crisis. Berlin’s divisive coalition, as well as French President Emmanuel Macron’s unpopularity at home, have made Franco-German initiatives and leadership within the EU much less convincing. Right-wing leaders like Orban or Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni could be next to fill the void left by Germany and France.

What is EPC?

The European Political Community was founded in 2022 following Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine. It brings together almost all European nations, including Turkey as well as the nations of the Caucasus and the Western Balkans. Russia and its close ally Belarus were explicitly disinvited.

The fact that this forum is now meeting in Hungary, of all countries, will make the negotiations all the more difficult. The Hungarian prime minister’s political views and diplomatic methods are visibly out of step with the EU, which has repeatedly accused Orban’s government of undermining the rule of law. The bloc is currently withholding funds intended for Hungary due to that country’s violation of EU treaties and apparent defiance of EU court rulings.

This article has been translated from German.