Hundreds of people will lose access to supervised consumption sites in Toronto when the province closes five of them next year, likely leading to increased public drug use and more overdoses, a new study suggests.

The Ontario government announced in August that it would close 10 supervised consumption sites across the province next spring because they were too close to schools and daycares.

Five of those sites are in Toronto, leaving five more open. A sixth center in the city could close its doors once its lease expires next year.

Ontario is abandoning harm reduction in favor of an abstinence-based model and intends to launch 19 new “homeless and addiction treatment centers” as well as 375 high-risk housing units. supervised at a cost of $378 million.

Supervised consumption sites scheduled for closure are expected to be closed by March 31, 2025.

Researchers from the MAP Center for Urban Health Solutions at St. Michael’s Hospital and the Ontario Drug Policy Research Network examined data from supervised consumption sites and found that on average, 1,366 people took used Toronto sites every month in 2022.

Researchers estimate that 561 of these people used the sites now slated for closure.

Only 35 of these customers will be within 500 meters of an open supervised consumption site next April, according to the study.

“This means that 38 per cent of current clients will lose access to a site assuming they travel no more than 500 meters,” said Dr. Ahmed Bayoumi, lead author and clinician-scientist at Unity Health Toronto, who directs St. Michel Hospital.

“There are going to be a large number of people who are currently using drugs in a supervised site who will no longer have access to that site, which will likely mean increased public drug use. This will likely lead to more unsupervised drug use, and therefore more overdoses.

The researchers also examined whether sites that remain open could handle the increase in visits due to the closures.

“Our best estimate was that sites would need to increase capacity by more than 50 percent in order to support the majority of customers who lose access,” Bayoumi said.

The study results will be published on the MAP Center for Urban Health Solutions website.

Researchers will closely monitor proposed changes to consumption sites, which will include a ban on new consumption sites and will be codified in legislation that has not yet been filed.

“When the sites actually close, we can watch what’s happening in terms of EMS calls, what’s happening in terms of hospital emergency department visits and hospital admissions for overdoses and for other complications associated with injection drug use such as wound infections,” Bayoumi said.

Health care workers, activists and the homeless have all said the closures will lead to more deaths.

Last year, nearly 2,600 Ontarians died from opioids, a 50 per cent increase from 2019, with fentanyl and its derivatives particularly affecting users in the homeless population.

Health Minister Sylvia Jones said no one would die because of the changes to reduce risk.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published November 7, 2024.