NASCAR is set to crown a Cup Series champion at Phoenix Raceway this Sunday with coverage starting at 2 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.

Forty drivers will compete in this weekend’s race, but it’s Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney and William Byron who will compete for the 2024 title. Points are thrown out the window, and the best of these four will win the Bill France Cup after 312 laps.

I want to focus just on the Championship 4 drivers entering this weekend and see how their championship chances have evolved from the start of the 2024 season until now, so let’s dive into some numbers.

Ryan Blaney (+175)

The latest odds at BetMGM place Ryan Blaney as the favorite to not only win the championship but also win the race (+310). The defending series champion has yet to find his way to victory in Phoenix, but he has six straight top-five finishes, including a second-place finish in last year’s finale to secure the championship.

Blaney entered 2024 with the fifth-best odds (+1,000) to become the first back-to-back champion since Jimmie Johnson won five in a row from 2006 to 2010. He went the first half of the season without a win before catching some summer heat with two wins at Iowa Speedway and Pocono Raceway. He entered the playoffs as the fifth seed.

Catching fire is what Blaney has become known for, especially in the playoffs. He built his reputation on back-to-the-wall victories late in the season, and 2024 was no different. He fought his way into championship contention in a must-win situation at Martinsville and is the betting favorite for the title for a reason.

In his 17 starts in Phoenix, Blaney has eight top-five finishes and an average of 10.6. He also leads all drivers in average finish, total speed and driver rating at this track since 2022.

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William Byron (+275)

Byron entered the season as the second seed (+600) to win his first title behind teammate Kyle Larson. He built an early record for those betting on him, snatching three wins in the first eight races, but ultimately found himself in a mid-season slump. This persisted into the first round of the playoffs despite being the fourth seed, but the No. 24 has found consistency of late with six straight top-five finishes.

He is the only Championship 4 driver not to earn his way into the title race, but he is a past winner at Phoenix and started on pole in this race a year ago. Byron will have to find some of that early-season magic in the wilderness, but there’s no denying he has the talent and the team to make it happen.

Joey Logano (+325)

After a disappointing title defense in 2023, Logano entered this season with the longest odds (+1800) of those who have reached Championship 4. His only regular season victory came at Nashville Superspeedway, and he entered in playoffs as the ninth seed.

Despite having one of his worst statistical seasons in Cup, Logano succeeded when it mattered most. He opened the playoffs with a victory in Atlanta and followed that up by winning the opening race of the round of 16 to punch his championship ticket.

Logano has the chance to become the 10th three-time Cup Series champion, and he has proven to be dangerous in critical moments. His only victory in Phoenix came in 2022 when he won his second championship. There’s added incentive here because Logano was the first to enter the title race, so having two weeks to prepare for Phoenix is ​​vital. I see the most value in betting on Logano for the title this weekend.

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Tyler Reddick (+325)

Reddick is the only driver to make his first Championship 4 appearance in the group. He was one of four drivers who opened at +1400 to win the title and the only one to make the playoffs.

Reddick established himself as the title favorite after winning the regular season championship and setting career highs in top five, top 10, laps led and average. Although the playoff results fell short of his regular season form, a buzzer-beater victory at Homestead propelled him to the Finals.

Could lack of league experience affect Reddick’s line? Personally, I give more weight to the inconsistencies of the No. 45 team, given that Reddick has two Xfinity Series titles under his belt in this exact playoff format. We also can’t forget that he led 68 laps at Phoenix in the spring and had top-two finishes in both stages, so we know the No. 45 can be in the lead.

There are arguments to be made for all of these drivers, but I give the edge to Ryan Blaney. Despite William Byron’s recent top five finish, he has not been present on Victory Lane since April. Tyler Reddick has finished 20th or lower six times in the playoffs, and Joey Logano hasn’t had the speed compared to his competition all season. An entire season comes down to one race, winner takes all.

Enjoy the races in Phoenix and good luck with your bets.