The stakes are therefore higher than ever following the latest announcement from the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), the executive arm of China’s legislature.

During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese goods.

China analyst Bill Bishop says Trump should be taken at his word on his new tariff plans.

“I think we should believe that he means it when he talks about tariffs, that he believes that China has reneged on its trade deal, that he thinks that China and Covid have cost him the 2020 elections.

Pressure from Washington did not ease after Trump left the White House in 2021. The Biden administration kept the measures in place and, in some cases, expanded them.

While Trump’s first wave of tariffs was painful for China, the country now finds itself in a much more vulnerable position.

The economy has struggled to return to pre-pandemic growth levels since strict Covid restrictions were abruptly lifted two years ago.

Instead of achieving a widely expected rapid recovery, China has become a regular source of disappointing economic news.

Even before Trump’s election victory and after China began rolling out economic support measures in September, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its annual growth target, external for the country.

The IMF now expects China’s economy to grow 4.8% in 2024, which is at the lower end of Beijing’s target of around 5%. Next year, China’s annual growth rate is expected to decline further to 4.5%.

But the country’s leaders were not completely caught off guard by the end of decades of lightning-fast growth.

Speaking in 2017, President Xi said his country planned to move from “rapid growth to a high-quality development stage.”

The term has since been used repeatedly by Chinese officials to describe a transition to an economy driven by advanced manufacturing and green industries.

But some economists say China cannot simply export its way out of its difficulties.

China risks falling into the type of decades-long stagnation that Japan experienced after a stock and housing bubble burst in the 1990s, said Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.

To avoid this fate, he believes that China should rely “on untapped consumer demand” and move away from “growth driven by exports and investments”.

This would not only encourage more sustainable growth, but also reduce “trade tensions and (China’s) vulnerability to external shocks”, he says.

This more robust economic model could help China fend off the kinds of threats posed by Trump’s return to power.