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Why AP called Trump’s Nevada presidential race
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Why AP called Trump’s Nevada presidential race

WASHINGTON – President-elect Donald Trump won his sixth key state in the 2024 election on Saturday morning, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in Nevada.

The Associated Press declared Trump the winner after concluding there were not enough uncounted ballots in the state’s strongest Democratic areas to surpass the former’s 46,000-vote lead president on the Democratic candidate.

Trump clinched a second term Wednesday morning when Wisconsin pushed him beyond the 270 electoral votes needed to win, so Nevada’s six electoral votes only added to the size of his victory: he now has 301 electoral votes and has won six of the seven battleground states. All that’s left to do is call Arizona.

The AP only declares a winner once it can determine that a trailing candidate cannot close the gap and overtake the poll leader.

Here’s a look at how the AP called this race:

CANDIDATES: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Joel Skousen (Independent American Party) vs. “None of these candidates.”

WINNER: Trump.

SURVEY CLOSING TIME: 10 p.m. ET

ABOUT THE RACE:

Nevada has one of the nation’s best overall results as a presidential barometer, although voters there supported Democrat Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016. The state remains a hotly contested battleground. Harris and Trump did frequent visits in Nevada since becoming their parties’ nominees, including Halloween rallies in Clark County, home of Henderson and Las Vegas. Both campaigns focused their visit on these two cities, as well as Reno in Washoe County.

In statewide elections, Democrats tend to win just two of Nevada’s 17 counties: Clark and Washoe. Their victory depends on the extent of their margins in these two countries. Clark County has by far the largest population in the state. A large vote margin is essential to the electoral success of the Democrats. He accounted for 69% of the statewide vote total in 2020. Washoe is more competitive, although Democrats there have historically prevailed in high-profile statewide campaigns, including the Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak’s unsuccessful bid in 2022. Republicans tend to win the rest of the state by wide margins.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE:

Most of the final ballots to be counted are from Clark and Washoe counties. They both have a long history of supporting Democrats for president. Statewide, votes counted after Election Day also tended to favor Democrats.

Trump’s lead narrowed as more ballots were counted over the week, but Harris did not win those ballots by a large enough margin to overtake Trump for the lead. At the time AP called the race, AP estimated that Harris would need to win 85% of all remaining ballots to be counted — a margin of victory she has never achieved in any update since polls closed .

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Learn more about how and why the AP declares US election winners at Explaining the 2024 election, an Associated Press series aimed at helping make sense of American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to improve its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. Learn more about AP’s Democratic Initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.