When a politician insists he has no intention of calling an election, it’s best not to believe him.

Simon Harris is now part of this rank of party leaders.

After saying for months that he wanted his government to serve until next year, the temptation of positive polls clearly proved too strong.

In October the three government parties agreed that general elections would take place this year – Yesterday, Harris formally called the election and called on President Higgins to dissolve the Dáil.

But while this is the first major electoral test for the Fine Gael leader, the stakes are just as high for his political opponents.

At the last general election four years ago, Sinn Féin – the Republic’s main opposition party – surprised political rivals and pundits by making significant gains, win 37 seats and obtain the greatest number of first preference votes of any party.

This marked a break from the two-party system of government, traditionally dominated by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, signaling a considerable shift in support for the party across the island.

Senior party officials acknowledged that their tactics had been too cautious and that they could have won more seats if they had fielded more candidates.

They declared victory even though the major parties refused to enter government with them, and next time insisted that party president Mary Lou McDonald be elected the first female taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister).

But this time, there is little expectation that the party will succeed in repeating its performance.

The first sign that all was not well came in the form of disappointing local government and European election results this summer.

Sinn Féin attributed the losses and falling opinion polls to a range of factors and insisted that ““regroup” before the general electionbut the time required to achieve this was much shorter than he would have liked.

Further pressure is also being placed on the party after it was revealed that two press officers had provided the credentials of a former party employee who was under police investigation for sex offenses on children. They have since resigned.

Then, in October, it emerged that Sinn Féin senator Niall Ó Donnghaile had not left the party in December 2023 for health reasons, as the party had indicated.

Mr Ó Donnghaile had been suspended from the party months earlier for sending inappropriate text messages to a teenager.

McDonald faced questions in the Dáil about the party’s handling of the issue.

An issue which has also proved vexing for Sinn Féin and other parties is the failure to define how to manage immigration.

It became a major social and political issue in Ireland after the country welcomed large numbers of Ukrainian refugees, alongside an increase in other sources of immigration.

Between March and December 2022 almost 68,000 people arrived to Ireland from Ukraine under the EU Temporary Protection Directive.

This sudden and unprecedented influx placed significant pressure on Irish state resources, with the government having to take measures such as temporarily housing people in tents.

The Irish government was already grappling with a housing crisis before the increase in immigration.

Right-wing demonstrators held a series of demonstrations accommodation centers for asylum seekers and some buildings intended for asylum seekers were set on fire.

A recent poll suggests that housing and immigration are major issues for voters – a fact which will not go unnoticed by the parties but which they will all struggle to grapple with.

Bargain budget

As for Fine Gael, Simon Harris is running in this election hoping for better results than his predecessor Leo Varadkar. managed in 2020when the party lost 15 seats.

Unable to form a government on his own, he sought to form a coalition government with Fianna Fáil and the Green Party – a deal that took four months to negotiate.

There is no doubt that Fine Gael has felt a rebound with Harris rising to the top job.

He is still struggling to prove to voters that his party must continue to govern after almost two decades, but after having posed a challenge to the electorate bargain budget with additional liquidity for many sectors, the party is keen to see its performance improve.

As for Fianna Fáil, its leader Micheál Martin has spent the last four years alternate between first two jobs in elected politics.

First as taoiseach, succeeding Leo Varadkar for the first half of the term under the coalition arrangements, before becoming Tánaiste (Irish Deputy Prime Minister) and Irish Foreign Minister in 2022 – a role which made him seen strongly engaged in political life. events north of the border as well.

His party narrowly won the most seats in 2020, edging out Sinn Féin’s 37 seats by just one more.

Recent polls show the party sitting at around 20%.

Whether the party does better than last time or struggles against Fine Gael will determine how Fianna Fáil views Micheál Martin’s future as leader, after 13 years in the role.

The success of independent candidates and some of the smaller parties in recent municipal elections is a factor that could come into play this time.

Elections always bring twists and turns, sentences from candidates who come to regret them and sometimes, a moment that really shakes things up.

The Republic of Ireland is now set to see all of this as the electoral machine gets rolling again.