It’s official: Anthony Albanese is now a definite obstacle to the Labor vote.

The government is trailing the coalition by 49 to 51 percent on the two-party vote, according to today’s Newspoll.

Labor’s vote in the primary was just 33 percent, compared to the Coalition’s 40 percent.

Without the Greens’ preferences for Labor, the government’s two-party deficit would be larger than it is now.

This shift in preference from the Greens to Labor is an omen of why the government continues to pander to its left flank, and a sure sign of the looming dependence a re-elected minority Labor government will have on ‘Adam Bandt and his party.

This assumes Albo finds a way to win the next election. Because current numbers suggest it’s uncertain, even though no first-term government has failed to win re-election since 1931.

But none have faced the kind of unpopular leader the government currently is.

Albo’s personal satisfaction index is in the toilet. As many as 55 percent of voters are dissatisfied with his performance, compared to just 40 percent who are satisfied.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the Midwinter Ball earlier this year with his future wife Jodie Haydon

This translates into a net satisfaction rate of minus 15, disastrous for a first-term incumbent.

Joe Biden was enduring similarly dire poll numbers before dropping out of the presidential race.

We are used to opposition leaders being unpopular. Their job is to overthrow governments, which, while often effective, also results in personal unpopularity.

But Albo is a prime minister who has only been in office for two and a half years, still in his first term.

Yet he is already on the nose, acting as a sea anchor for his government.

If Labor MPs thought they could orchestrate his impeachment, they would. But timing, the rules of leadership and the lack of an obvious alternative are now Albo’s best friends.

So why is the Prime Minister so unpopular?

This is the first Newspoll since news of the $4.3 million waterfront vacation property purchase broke.

This might not have been remembered by voters if the Prime Minister had not subsequently been embroiled in a business class upgrade scandal with Qantas.

An airline – along with its former CEO Alan Joyce – that backed its failed bid to install an Indigenous voice in Parliament, rejected by 60 per cent of Australians in every state.

The erosion of Albo’s links with traditional Australians did not stop there. The news of his musical chairs with members of his family accessing the president’s lounge also made the rounds in the media.

Did anyone know that Albo grew up in a housing authority? He Never mentions it, then maybe not.

Some of his senior colleagues fear he will now be a drag on the Labor vote because Albo “now appears to be a class traitor”, as one MP told Daily Mail Australia.

Mr Albanese above sports a more casual look – a Newtown Jets jersey, UGG boots and Peter Alexander pajama bottoms – following his victory in the 2022 federal election.

While Albo once said he loved fighting conservatives, it seems to a growing number of Australians that he is now more interested in emulating their privilege.

This may be why Albo’s popularity continues to decline and Labor’s electoral fortunes continue to fade.

Add to that the outcome of last week’s elections in the United States, where the return of Donald Trump’s presidency and Republican majorities in the House and Senate dealt a blow to incumbent Democrats.

Could we be about to witness a historic event when Australians go to the polls before the end of May next year? Witness a first-term government that lost its re-election bid for the first time in nearly 100 years?

I always say no. The most likely scenario is that Labor wins an ugly victory, relying on the Greens and other MPs to govern in minority in a second term.

Even if interest rates do not fall in February next year, because domestic inflation remains too high.

But with the unpopular Albo leading Labor’s re-election campaign – knowing he’s a terrible campaigner at the best of times – anything is possible.