These figures would almost double the installed capacity recorded in 2023, when Europe added a record 56 GW of solar PVaccording to the annual report of the SolarPowerEurope (SPE) trade association on the European market. This is also a big increase from SPE’s 2024 forecast of 62 GW, while the S&P’s numbers are closer to 100 GW for this year (95 GW). It should be noted that the SPE forecast was made in December 2023.

Key markets for solar PV growth in recent years have been Germany, Eastern Europe, Spain and Italy, Coman said. These markets represented almost half of the total installed capacity in Europe.

Despite this accelerated growth at the start of the decade, the second half of the 2020s will see its growth rate slow, Coman explained. This is due to the ever-increasing challenge of interconnecting networks, as previously reported on PV Techwith more investment needed in the solar PV network to maintain its growth. “The first thing we need to do is invest in the network,” Coman said.

He explained that another challenge for European markets is the low and volatile electricity prices in recent months, which will affect the utility market in the future. By the end of the decade, the European market is expected to add 130 GW of installed capacity per year.

Although utility scale might seem more challenging in the second half of this decade, Coman said the roofing market will see strong and consistent growth in the coming years, “moving from a market of approximately 60 GW in 2024 to a market of 85 GW by 2030.” .”

Global installations expected to reach 580 GW in 2025

Speaking about global trends, Coman said S&P forecasts global solar installations will reach 580 GW in 2025, a significant contrast to recent BloombergNEF forecasts which has global installations for this year at almost 600 GW. “We expect growth to slow slightly in 2025 to reach a growth rate of 7%,” Coman added.

This growth is mainly driven by China, which has doubled its installed photovoltaic capacity over the past two years and added in 2023 the same amount as the entire global market in 2022. This does not mean that other markets have not seen growth in photovoltaic capacity. capacity increases since the start of the decade. Coman explained that between 2021 and 2024, the number of annual gigawatt-scale markets increased from 16 to 45, almost tripling in the space of three years. “What we are seeing is an expansion of the areas where solar energy is being installed,” he said.

In Europe alone this year, three markets – Romania, Lithuania and Ireland – will see, for the first time, more than 1 GW of solar capacity added in a single year. Malaysia, Uzbekistan and Iran will also install more than 1 GW of PV capacity this year or next.

“Even though mature markets will maintain high installation levels in the years to come, it is really these growing markets that we need to look to to advance the solar market in the years to come,” explained Coman, adding that growth will occur in Europe. and in Asia, excluding China, in the coming years thanks to untapped markets with further growth in solar photovoltaics.

Additionally, Coman said the gap between supply and demand – the current oversupply within the solar industry – would narrow in 2025 but would “remain in the market for years to come”, adding that prices would stabilize over the next few years.