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A few more dry days before another chance of rain returns to the forecast
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A few more dry days before another chance of rain returns to the forecast

Tonight and Wednesday: Gusty northerly winds ease this afternoon with the passage of a weak cold front, giving way to warmer conditions on Wednesday. A light offshore flow will establish as an area of ​​high pressure moves eastward, creating moderate offshore gradients.

Our Tuesday outflow system and North Pacific activity is still producing some waves and an advisory for breaking waves of 10 to 14 feet is in place through Wednesday morning:

Offshore winds won’t be particularly strong, so expect slight temperature changes along the coast. Inland valleys may experience more visible warming due to dry air and light downslope winds.

Thursday and Friday: A low pressure system currently positioned over the northwest Pacific will begin to drift south, leading to increased cloud cover and a return to onshore flow Thursday and Friday. This system is relatively dry but has a good amount of cold air, which could make it more dynamic and impactful in our region.

Light rain is expected to begin north of Point Conception, with precipitation generally less than a tenth of an inch. At lower elevations, some areas could see totals reach up to a quarter of an inch, particularly where cold air interacts with north-facing slopes in Santa Barbara County.

The main impacts of this system will likely be gusty west and northwest winds Friday afternoon, particularly along the coast. These winds could reach advisory levels, particularly near the coast and in wind-prone areas, so plan for potential travel impacts.

Long-term forecast (Saturday – Tuesday):

SATURDAY: Conditions will vary slightly depending on how quickly the low pressure system dissipates. Some models suggest lingering moisture Saturday morning, especially around Grapevine, where cool temperatures and residual moisture could lead to very light snow showers up to elevations around 4,000 feet. Any snow accumulation would likely be minor, an inch or less, and mostly in the higher passes.

However, most areas are expected to experience drier conditions with skies gradually clearing by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will still be a little cooler than normal, but the arrival of a ridge of high pressure should bring clear skies and mild conditions.

From Sunday to Tuesday: A slow warming trend is expected to begin Sunday as the high pressure ridge briefly strengthens over the region. This is expected to raise temperatures by around 5 degrees. By Monday, a weak trough will sweep across the region, but it is expected to remain primarily to the north and east. Although most of the area will remain dry, there is a 10 to 20 percent chance of light showers in San Luis Obispo and northern Santa Barbara counties, as well as the Grapevine area.

Once this system passes, attention turns to a possible Santa Ana wind event Tuesday through Wednesday for Southern California. Stay tuned as this portion of the forecast evolves.