(Bloomberg) — Nearly 200 countries are gathering this week for COP29, the annual United Nations climate summit, in the latest international effort to bring global warming under control. Copper buyers are converging on Shanghai for one of the world’s biggest gatherings for the industrial metal. And in the United States, Donald Trump’s electoral victory highlights the potential impacts on oil markets.

Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week begins.

Climate

COP29 begins Monday, with delegates from around the world converging on Azerbaijan for at least 12 days of climate negotiations. The main objective of this edition is to set a new target for climate finance that replaces the current target according to which rich countries must provide 100 billion dollars per year to poor countries to support the green transition and protect these economies from extreme weather conditions. COP29 brings additional uncertainty from the United States – the world’s second largest greenhouse gas polluter – following the election victory of Trump last week, who campaigned on a promise to exit the historic Paris agreement of 2015 which imposed limits on global warming.

Copper

Shanghai, China’s commodity trading hub, is hosting one of the world’s largest annual copper industry gatherings this week. In addition to assessing the future of demand in the world’s largest metals market, Asia Copper Week executives face tough annual negotiations over supply. Chinese smelters have expanded rapidly in recent years, putting them in fierce competition for the tight supply of ore from major mining companies such as Freeport McMoRan Inc. or Antofagasta Plc. Copper futures fell on the London Metal Exchange on Monday.

Oil

Oil prices have struggled to find direction since Trump’s victory as traders debate the impact of his presidency on the market. A key variable will be whether his potential “drill, baby, drill” approach to domestic production will actually lead to increased corporate production, which is already at record levels under President Joe Biden’s administration. Most market observers are forecasting a surplus next year, and companies may be reluctant to dip into their valuable drilling inventories unless prices rebound strongly. Oil prices extended their decline on Monday.

Weather report

The lack of clear weather signals in the Pacific has meteorologists and marketers waiting for La Niña to act and influence weather around the world in the coming months. La Niña, which is the cooling of the ocean, can bring winter chills to Japan, western Canada and the northern United States, while causing drought in agricultural regions of South America and heavy rains in Indonesia and northern Australia. However, so far La Niña has arrived late, and while forecasters are still expecting it, they predict its impacts will be small.

Saw timber

The U.S. South is poised to end Canada’s long-standing dominance of the North American lumber industry as decades of trade restrictions take their toll. The U.S. region is poised to overtake Canada in softwood lumber capacity, according to commodity pricing agency Fastmarkets. It’s a remarkable turnaround that shows how a key sector of Canada’s resources has declined due to years of U.S. import tariffs and other challenges, including wildfires, regulation of land use and insect infestations.

–With assistance from Martin Ritchie, Doug Alexander, Ilena Peng and Thomas Seal.

(Adds Monday market movements for copper and oil from fourth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg LP