The leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Shigeru Ishiba, was appointed Prime Minister of Japan by the Japanese National Diet on Monday, November 11. He now leads Japan’s first minority government in three decades. In the upper house of the Diet, the House of Advisors, the LDP and its ally Komeito held a confirmed majority, and Ishiba won in the first round. However, in the lower house, a runoff was necessary, as neither he nor Noda Yoshihiko – another former prime minister and leader of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) – secured a majority in the first round.

In the first round, Ishiba received 221 votes, while Noda, unable to expand his coalition, remained at 160 votes. Ishiba then won decisively in the second round. However, this still leaves the LDP-Komeito coalition in the minority due to the results of the October 27 elections, which reduced the LDP’s number of seats and deprived it of the majority. It may be recalled that Ishiba had won the LDP presidential race and immediately dissolved Parliament in a bid to establish his authority over the LDP and the government. He thought he would be the “breath of fresh air,” as polls for the LDP leadership showed, but that fresh air could not dispel the lingering stench of scandals within Japanese politics, which people have had enough.

As a result, Ishiba won the LDP leadership race, but barely retained the premiership after his party suffered losses in the elections. Normally, such losses would lead the prime minister to resign as leader of his party, but as Ishiba had just won the LDP elections, he did not resign and instead took on this responsibility with limited support.

In the elections, the LDP won only 191 seats, losing 68 compared to the last elections. The party was forced to adopt six independent candidates, former LDP candidates disavowed by the LDP for ethical reasons. The main opposition, the CDP, which previously had less than 100 seats, increased its number by 52, to a total of 148. The Komeito, which previously had 32 seats, also saw a decline, falling to 24.

It was the role of other parties that could have determined whether the CDP could form a coalition and defeat the LDP’s minority in Parliament, or whether the LDP could gain support from other parties to establish a stable coalition.

The Japan Innovation Party, once the favorite of optimists, also saw its membership plummet, from 43 to 38 seats and failing to expand outside Kansai. The biggest gains have been made by the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), which now holds 28 seats and appears poised to exert greater influence.

The surprise of the election was the DPFP, a center-right opposition party supported by business sector unions, particularly among automakers. It had only seven seats in the previous Diet, but now holds 28. The party is credited with effectively using virtual campaigns to gain youth support by pursuing policies that would have a direct impact on workers, in particularly those of arbeito jobs (part-time). The DPFP wants to raise the annual tax-exempt income threshold from 1.03 million yen (about $6,700) to 1.78 million yen. This is expected to reduce tax collections by almost 7 trillion yen. However, this proposal was a point of contention and the ruling parties could not come to an agreement with the DPFP, which is why it did not join a coalition with the LDP.

The leader of the DPFP, Tamaki Yuichiro, who found himself embroiled in a media controversy, still does not know how he can position himself as a kingmaker. Instead, he chose to become a partial coalition partner, aiming to influence the LDP and Komeito to achieve his party’s agenda.

All of these parties were courted by both camps, with the CDP sensing the opportunity to form a coalition. However, smaller parties did not align with either camp and held their ground, with the election seen as a major rebuke to the LDP. Although it has been in power for 65 of the past 70 years, this was the first election since major scandals – such as the Unification Church funding scandal and the slush fund scandal – broke up, which meant that the LDP had to face the anger of the people.

Ishiba took comfort in the fact that, in a Asahi Shimbun poll, 61 percent of respondents did not think he should resign following the LDP’s declining electoral performance. As a result, Ishiba remains Prime Minister.

Even Komeito, an ally of the LDP, saw its leader Ishii Keiichi lose his constituency after becoming Komeito president in September. Komeito has now named Territorial Minister Saito Tetsuo as its new leader, but it will remain committed to supporting the LDP in Parliament.

The LDP is aware that the various opposition parties, such as the Japan Innovation Party, the DPFP and the Japanese Communist Party (which holds 8 seats), cannot unite around a common program. The PLD will therefore remain at the heart of the project.

One of the main results of the recent elections is the decline in the strength of some parties, with the exception of the CDP and the DPFP. This led to leadership questions within these parties, resulting in a change of leadership in almost every faction represented in the Japanese Diet.

On the policy side, it is now clear that no coalition will achieve 310 votes in the Diet, and thus efforts to amend the Japanese constitution will diminish in this Parliament. The PLD, as well as the three parties often seen as favorable to the amendment, no longer have the required majority.

Now, the CDP, DPP, and Japan Innovation Party may attempt to build issue-based coalitions with the LDP-Komeito minority government to advance their respective agendas. This will include budget discussions, which are usually concluded in December. Disaster relief in affected areas, such as Noto Hanto, will have to be a priority, meaning the DPFP will face difficulties in implementing its proposed income tax cut. The CDP now chairs the budget committee, as well as the judicial committee and the constitutional committee, which gives it a more important role. Ishiba will have to manage the Diet effectively, given his lack of a majority.

The political fundraising scandal and reform are already the subject of discussions between the LDP, CDP and DPFP to agree on how to proceed. Ishiba was elected leader of the LDP based on the resolution of these issues. A special session can be called to pass laws limiting party financing, and a sort of ombudsman to monitor candidates’ political financing can be created. These are campaign promises from the DPFP and could potentially be accepted.

The author is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. The opinions expressed in the article above are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Firstpost.