For nearly two centuries, greenhouse gas emissions have steadily increased as humans burned increasing amounts of oil, gas and coal. Today, climate scientists believe these emissions could finally peak.

Thanks to the rapid growth of renewable energy, global emissions from fossil fuels may soon begin to decline. This long-awaited peak represents a key milestone in efforts to limit the planet’s temperature. Studies show that emissions must peak and then decline quickly to limit impacts such as more intense heatwaves and storms.

Many climate scientists have speculated that annual emissions could decline in 2024, which would indicate that global emissions have already peaked. But one new study reveals Emissions from burning fossil fuels are expected to increase slightly again this year, due to growing demand for electricity.

World leaders are currently discussing efforts to reduce emissions at COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. Despite countries’ commitments to abandon fossil fuels, global emissions have increased almost every year since negotiations began. A drop in emissions could be a sign that the negotiations are finally bearing fruit.

Even when emissions begin to decline, Earth will still be on track to experience the extreme impacts of climate change. Any added greenhouse gases will continue to warm the planet. The broadcasts should be reduced by about half by 2035 To limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the main reference countries have agreed to continue climate negotiations.

“We know that the peak is the beginning of the journey,” says Neil Grant, senior climate and energy analyst at Climate Analytics, a climate think tank.

“But a spike in emissions would be a real sign of human action. If we could say, look, we can turn the corner, that would show me that we have power and so that would be a hopeful thing for me. ”

Good and bad news

The rise of renewable energy is largely the result of economic factors: it is now generally cheaper to build a new solar project than a power plant running on coal or natural gas. Last year, countries deployed almost twice as much renewable energy capacity as the year before. China leads the way, accounting for around 60% of new renewable energy capacity added globally in 2023.

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The growing supply of solar and wind power has begun to replace fossil fuels, but so far in 2024 it has been thwarted by a growing need for electricity. Economies are growing and air and sea traffic is increasing. The growing use of artificial intelligence also requires intensive amounts of electricity to run data centers. Severe heat waves around the world this year have also increased demand for air conditioning, a sign that worsening climate impacts may make it even more difficult to reduce emissions.

Much of this growth energy demand is met by oil and natural gas. This means that fossil fuel emissions are not yet decreasing, despite the significant development of renewable energies. As a result, global emissions are expected to increase by 0.8% in 2024, according to the Global carbon budget.

“Bad news: we are not in decline yet,” says Pierre Friedlingstein, one of the report’s authors and a professor at the University of Exeter.

“Good news: the growth rate is much lower than it was 10 years ago.”

Emissions in the United States and European Union have been falling for years as those countries transition away from burning coal. In India, emissions are expected to rise 4.6% this year, as the country industrializes and a growing middle class consumes more energy. In China, emissions are only expected to increase by 0.2%, leading some to speculate about the country’s emissions. will soon peakahead of the government’s 2030 target.

The peak is just the beginning

Although the peak of global emissions from burning fossil fuels could occur in just a few years, that doesn’t mean global temperatures will start to drop. Countries will continue to emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but at a slower rate. These emissions will continue to increase global temperatures. To prevent temperatures from rising, greenhouse gas emissions must fall to zero.

“At this high point, your emissions are at an all-time high,” says Grant. “That means you’re actually doing as much damage to the climate system as possible every year. And what matters most is how quickly you can get out of that high damage zone.”

It’s like driving a car at dangerous speeds, Friedlingstein says. Reaching peak emissions is like taking your foot off the gas pedal.

“You always have to brake if you want to stop at any point, because there’s a wall there and you’re heading towards the wall,” Friedlingstein says. “If you want to stop in front of the wall, you have to start braking.”

At the COP29 climate summit, countries are negotiating new commitments to reduce future emissions, hoping to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Beyond that level , the world could see much more destructive storms and floodsas well as irreversible damage to ecosystems like coral reefs. Achieving this goal would require reducing emissions to zero by 2050, although countries’ efforts current commitments are well below this objective.

However, a peak in emissions would mark an important turning point in global negotiations.

“We are still, to some extent, masters of our destiny and we can control the extent of warming,” says Grant.

Copyright 2024 NPR