The new drought monitoring system is out and, unsurprisingly, it’s bad news for all three states.

Severe drought conditions have gripped much of the New York metropolitan area. The last time severe drought conditions were this widespread across the region was in 2002. The worst drought conditions – extreme levels – are limited to South Jersey.

It’s the same story all fall: we don’t have enough rain. And the longer this weather phenomenon persists, the more problematic it becomes. Unfortunately, there is little hope of improvement.

The rainfall over the past three months has been catastrophic. Central Park only accumulated 1.77 inches of rain. That’s nearly 8.5 inches less than the seasonal average.

And we expect this deficit to widen even further before the end of the season at the end of November.

The glaring lack of precipitation has had detrimental consequences on local reservoirs. New York’s reservoirs, which supply water to nearly half the state, including New York City, are operating at much lower capacity.

On average, reservoirs operate at around 79% capacity; right now, they’re operating at just under 62%. Levels vary by venue, but three of the seven venues are operating at 50% capacity or less, with the lowest at around 25%.

This increasing pressure on reservoirs is also visible in New Jersey. Reservoirs serving North and Central Jersey are experiencing moderately dry conditions and the problem is likely to worsen quickly.

Normally, in late fall, reservoir levels begin to rise thanks to fall and winter precipitation, but this year that seems unlikely. The trend is for reservoir levels to continue to fall at least through December.

Trends are similar in other areas of New Jersey, including the southern part of the state. In Monmouth and Ocean counties, water supplies are approaching the “extremely dry” category, consistent with the most intense drought conditions seen in this part of the state.

Due to these lower water levels, city and state offices have issued their own drought alerts, urging government agencies as well as residents to reduce their water use. For example, New York’s drought monitoring system encourages residents to report any fire hydrant leaks to 311, while New Jersey’s drought warning suggests limiting showers to just five minutes. All this in an effort to mitigate the depletion of our water resources during this period of prolonged drought.

The last time New Jersey issued a drought warning was in 2016 – and it lasted for more than six months. It’s unclear how long this situation will last, but one thing is clear: we won’t have drought-fighting rain anytime soon.

The chances of showers over the next 10 days are minimal, and our best bet for getting a good amount of measurable rain won’t arrive until late next week.

And even then, the totals aren’t very impressive. On the generous side, parts of our region could see up to an inch of rain. But this is far from enough to have a significant impact on our rainfall deficit. So expect conditions to get worse before they get better (or wetter).