Even though a lot has changed in the NFL this season, it appears the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are once again on a collision course to decide each other’s fate. They will meet in the regular season this Sunday in Week 11 in what has a strong chance of being a playoff preview.

Let’s look at the latest odds for this AFC matchup, then I’ll predict what the final score will be.

Odds via BetMGM Sports Betting

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Money line

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The Bills started as 1-point favorites, but the gap quickly shifted in Buffalo’s favor. The Bills are now favorites with 2.5 points. The total fell half a point, from 46.5 to 46.0.

In this week’s edition of “Road to 272 Paris“, I explained why I’m giving up betting against the Chiefs when they are underdogs:

I’m tired of trying mind games involving the Chiefs. I was the guy who bet against the Chiefs time and time again in big games. I cite metrics, advanced analytics and other variables, convinced that the Chiefs are not as good as their opponent. Then I live to regret it almost every time. I’m done making that mistake.

I don’t know if it’s voodoo or some sort of clutch gene that only belongs to Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, but a 12-1-1 career record as an underdog speaks for itself -even. I’ll take the points with the Chiefs in the final edition of a Josh Allen vs. Mahomes matchup.

With the total set at 46, I’ll take the UNDER. The Chiefs defense has been the far superior unit on this Kansas City team and it’s one of the main reasons they win games. The Bills defense has also been underrated this season, ranking 10th in opponent EPA per play.

Final score prediction: Chiefs 21, Bills 20

Ratings are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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