Top spot in the World Rugby rankings is up for grabs this weekend as the Springboks could drop as far as third, with the All Blacks and Ireland vying for a place at the top.

South Africa face England on Saturday at Twickenham, knowing they will remain top of the table with victory over Steve Borthwick’s men. However, a defeat against the team they crashed out of last year’s World Cup could see them fall as far as third place, depending on results in Dublin and Paris.

Ireland and New Zealand could end the weekend top of the World Rugby rankings if South Africa lose while there is plenty of potential movement in the top 20 of the rankings.

With the help of Rugby Worldwe look at the permutations.

World Rugby ranking permutations

Ireland And New Zealand cannot replace the Springboks as the number one team in the world if Rassie Erasmus’ men beat England in the Autumn Nations Series clash at Twickenham on Saturday, regardless of their results against Argentina and France, respectively.

However, if the Boks lose to England, New Zealand will go top of the table if they beat France at the Stade de France. It would be the first time the All Blacks have topped the table since the 2019 World Cup semi-finals.

For Ireland to return to the top of the table, a position they ceded in their defeat to the All Blacks last weekend, Andy Farrell’s men will not only have to beat Argentina, but hope that they South Africa and New Zealand also lost.

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Ireland fell from first to third place in the rankings following their loss to New Zealand and it is possible for them to drop another place if they fall to back-to-back home defeats by losing by more than 15 points against Argentina and the Springboks. and the All Blacks win. This would allow Argentina to climb two places to third and be among the top three in the southern hemisphere for the first time since 2021.

There is also a scenario in which Ireland could drop to fifth place in the table. This would happen if they lost by more than 15 points to Argentina and France beat the All Blacks – this would happen regardless of the England-South Africa result.

England fell to seventh in the rankings following their defeat to Australia last weekend – their lowest ranking since February 2016 – but even a draw against South Africa would be enough to see them overtake Scotland in sixth place. The Scots face Portugal this weekend and cannot improve their ranking even with a comprehensive victory over Os Lobos.

However, England cannot rise above sixth place because the gap between them and France and Argentina is too big, even if they hammer South Africa.

Australia moved up one place to eighth with a win over Borthwick’s men last weekend and can continue to climb if they beat Wales by more than 15 points and England loses by the same margin. If that were to happen, England would fall to eighth, their all-time low.

Italy’s heavy defeat to Argentina last week saw them drop two places in the rankings, falling to 10th, but the Azzurri have the opportunity to regain at least one place. They will not only have to beat Georgia, but also hope that Fiji also bow to a defeat against Spain.

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Wales’ woes could worsen

Warren Gatland’s men welcome Australia to Cardiff aiming to break their 10-match Test losing streak and, if they can’t, Wales will fall to a record low of 12th if this defeat is combined to a victory for Georgia against Italy – Wales. However, it cannot fall below 12th.

Eddie Jones’ Japan side can leapfrog Samoa into 13th place if they beat Uruguay in France this weekend.

History awaits Georgia as they can enter the top 10 for the first time since the rankings were introduced in 2003, but they will have to beat Italy by more than 15 points. If they do, only Wales can deprive them of their historic position by beating the Wallabies by the same margin.

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Portugal can only improve their ranking if they beat Scotland for the first time and their victory comes with a defeat for Japan, while a draw for the Brave Blossoms would require an Os Lobos victory by more than 15 points.

Porgual cannot lose ranking points by losing to Scotland, but it could still lose a place in the rankings if Spain beat Fiji or the United States beat Tonga by more than 15 points.

See current permutations and world rankings below

IRELAND (3) 90.58 against ARGENTINA (5) 85.60

Ireland wins by 15 points or less – Ireland 90.78, Argentina 85.40
Ireland win by over 15 points – Ireland 90.88, Argentina 85.30
Draw – Ireland 89.78, Argentina 86.40
Argentina wins by 15 points or less – Ireland 88.78, Argentina 87.40
Argentina win by over 15 points – Ireland 87.88, Argentina 88.30

SCOTLAND (7) 82.70 against PORTUGAL (15) 68.82

Scotland win by 15 points or less – Scotland 82.70, Portugal 68.82 (No change)
Scotland win by over 15 points – Scotland 82.70, Portugal 68.82 (No change)
Draw – Scotland 81.70, Portugal 69.82
Portugal wins by 15 points or less – Scotland 80.69, Portugal 70.82
Portugal win by over 15 points – Scotland 79.69, Portugal 71.82

ENGLAND (7) 82.62 v SOUTH AFRICA (1) 92.46

England win by 15 points or less – England 84.31, South Africa 90.78
England win by over 15 points – England 85.15, South Africa 89.94
Draw – England 83.31, South Africa 91.78
South Africa wins by 15 points or less – England 82.31, South Africa 92.78
South Africa win by over 15 points – England 82.15, South Africa 92.94

FRANCE (4) 86.96 vs. NEW ZEALAND (2) 91.21

France wins by 15 points or less – France 88.08, New Zealand 90.09
France wins by over 15 points – France 88.64, New Zealand 89.53
Draw – France 87.08, New Zealand 91.09
New Zealand win by 15 points or less – France 86.08, New Zealand 92.09
New Zealand win by over 15 points – France 85.64, New Zealand 92.53

ITALY (10) 78.67 against GEORGIA (12) 74.10

Italy wins by 15 points or less – Italy 78.92, Georgia 73.85
Italy wins by over 15 points – Italy 79.04, Georgia 73.03
Draw – Italy 77.92, Georgia 74.85
Georgia wins by 15 points or less – Italy 76.92, Georgia 75.85
Georgia wins by over 15 points – Italy 76.04, Georgia 76.73

WALES (11) 75.04 v AUSTRALIA (8) 81.14

Wales win by 15 points or less – Wales .76.35 Australia 79.83
Wales win by over 15 points – Wales 77.01, Australia 79.17
Draw – Wales 75.35, Australia 80.82
Australia wins by 15 points or less – Wales 74.35, Australia 81.83
Australia win by over 15 points – Wales 74.01, Australia 82.17

Latest World Rugby ranking as of 11/15/2024

1 South Africa 92.46
2 New Zealand 91.21
3 Ireland 90.58
4 France 86.96
5 Argentina 85.60
6 Scotland 82.70
7 England 82.62
8 Australia 81.14
9 Fiji 80.07
10 Italy 78.67
11 Wales 75.04
12 Georgia 74.10
13 Samoa 72.68
14 Japan 72.31
15 Portugal 68.82
16 United States 67.49
17 Spain 67.10
18 Tonga 66.87
19 Uruguay 66.58
20 Romania 63.87

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