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Pennsylvania Election Audits and Recounts, Explained
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Pennsylvania Election Audits and Recounts, Explained

Election Day passed in Pennsylvania, largely without a hitch. But for county officials responsible for voting in the state, the work is not done.

For the most part, the state has avoided high-profile missteps like the ballot shortage that Luzerne County tested in 2022. And with the exception of the U.S. Senate race, decisive margins and quick concessions helped the state avoid a conflict-marred post-election period.

Still, several crucial steps must be taken before President-elect Donald Trump and other victors take office. Here are the main procedures that will take place over the coming weeks.

A double check

Pennsylvania’s 67 counties are required, after each election, to audit their results to ensure accuracy.

The first check they carry out is the “statistical sample”, more commonly known as the “2% audit”. This is a legally required recount of 2% of the ballots cast in a county, or 2,000 total ballots if that number is less, which is usually the case. The ballots are drawn randomly.

Counties are using a different method than they initially used to count ballots during the audit. Some do so using vote tabulation machines different from those used on Election Day, while others count ballots manually.

Counties must complete these recounts before the deadline to certify their election results, which this year is November 25. Some counties have already completed the audit, while others will do so in the next two weeks.

This isn’t the only audit the counties have done. Following a 2018 settlement in lawsuit filed by Jill SteinGreen Party presidential candidate in Pennsylvania now leads statewide limited risk audits.

With the 2% audit, an election administrator could choose to review ballots from only a few precincts. While this review may reveal a problem with those specific precincts or with the ballots cast there, it won’t reveal much about the election as a whole.

A risk mitigation audit is designed to check the margin of a race to confirm that the announced winner actually won. The process begins when Pennsylvania Department of State employees roll a set of 10-sided dice to generate a random number, which is fed into an algorithm that determines which ballots counties should review. This process ensures that no one knows in advance which ballots will be recounted, making it impossible to manipulate the result.

If a race has a smaller margin, the algorithm requires more batches of ballots to be examined to verify the outcome. If the margin is wider, fewer lots need to be checked.

The races that will be included in this year’s risk-limiting audit will be announced Wednesday and the roll of the dice will take place Friday, according to a State Department spokesperson. Counties where a batch is selected will have until the Nov. 25 certification deadline to recount.

When a race goes to a recount

The presidential race in Pennsylvania was decided by a wide enough margin that the outcome was known shortly after Election Day. The same cannot be said for the U.S. Senate race.

As the Associated Press called the race for Republican Dave McCormick based on an analysis of the votes remaining to be counted — including provisional ballots when a voter’s eligibility is in question — incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey had not conceded as of Friday.

As of noon Friday, McCormick had 48.89 percent of the vote to Casey’s 48.54 percent, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State. website.

Under Pennsylvania law, a recount is triggered automatically when the result of a race is within the limit of 0.5%. Pennsylvania’s top election official, Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt, ordered the recount on November 14. The recount must then begin on November 20 and the results must be submitted to the secretary by November 27.

However, recounts rarely change the outcome of a race.

FairVote, a nonprofit organization that advocates for ranked-choice voting, analyzed nearly 7,000 statewide races between 2000 and 2023. The investigation found 36 recounts during that period, only three of which resulted in a change of outcome.

“All three reversals occurred when the initial margin was less than 0.06% of all votes cast for the top two candidates,” the report said.

According to the Pennsylvania Department of State, there have been seven statewide recounts since the 0.5% rule took effect in 2004. None have changed the winner.

Three voters in a precinct can also request a recount if they believe fraud or error has occurred. Such a recount only applies to ballots cast in the voting precinct, which is the smallest voting district, usually having only a few hundred voters and sometimes no larger than a city block.

Although there were fears that such recounts would be weaponized this year and delay certification of resultsso far this has not happened.

Certify Pennsylvania Results

Once all ballots are counted, counties take the final step: certification.

Certification is a two-step process for counties. First, a county’s board of elections signs a certification of the results, which is considered unofficial for five days. During this period, objections or requests for recounts may be made.

Counties sign the certification a second time at the end of the five days or when objections are resolved. Then they send the certification to the Pennsylvania Department of State and the results are finalized. For the 2024 elections, this process must be completed by November 25.

For most races, that’s the end of the story. But for the presidential election, there is still an important step.

On Dec. 11, Schmidt will deliver the statewide results to Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, who in turn will sign a “voter nomination verification certificate.” It allows electors of winning presidential candidates to vote in the Electoral College. This vote will take place on December 17 in Harrisburg.

90.5 WESA partners with Spotlight PA, a collaborative, reader-funded newsroom producing responsible journalism for all of Pennsylvania. More on Spotlightpa.org.