The “St. Louis Cardinals Way” no longer exists, or at least not now. Consecutive seasons without a playoff appearance indicate it’s time for a change. The organization has every reason to begin a rebuild and begin preparing for a National League Central Division that should become very interesting over the next few years. Trading Nolan Arenado would obviously be a big part of this plan. However, it is not that simple.

St. Louis is hampered by several hefty contracts that should be difficult to move. Arenado’s deal is actually quite acceptable, especially after the 2025 campaign. Although ownership is reportedly open to shipping eight-time All-Star third baseman and starting pitcher Sonny Gray in an effort to reduce the payroll, the market might suggest it’s more beneficial to simply bring him back with the current core.

Granted, this sounds like the ramblings of a delusional man or a hopelessly optimistic Redbirds fan, but I assure you I am neither. The Cardinals will have a tough time moving Gray and Willson Contreras — the former will make $60 million over the next two seasons and the latter will collect more than $54 million by the end of 2027. Even if both stars agree to waive their no-trade clauses, which may not be the casepresident of baseball operations John Mozeliak will face a dilemma.

The long-time leader will likely need to prioritize either maximizing return value or reducing costs. He won’t be able to have his cake and eat it too, unless one of the big guys is feeling extremely desperate this offseason. The Cardinals know that the offers will inevitably be disappointing and are therefore tempted to achieve their goal via Arenado.

But trade this veteran is not practical. Let’s see why.

Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado may not be considered a high-value asset

The five-time Silver Slugger will be 34 years old at the start of the 2025 MLB season and is already in the midst of a steep offensive decline. He’s posted an OPS of .774 and .719 in each of the last two years, respectively, which falls well below his career production of .857. Teams might be hesitant to shell out a promising prospect or a $21 million salary for a player who could soon be completely in the clutches of Father Time.

Now, I want to make it clear that I can foresee an Arenado revival in 2025. He hit a respectable .272 with 16 homers and 71 RBIs while playing excellent defense at the hot corner (nine outs above averageby Baseball Savant). It might just take a few adjustments for him to return to All-Star form. However, I fear the league’s front offices won’t agree with me.

A slowing commercial market would hardly encourage Mozeliak to get rid of Arenado. Since the Cards can’t guarantee quick departures from Gray, Contreras or Miles Mikolas, there’s no point in rushing to part with an experienced baseball player who will be just three seasons away from winning the title runner-up in the NL.

Yes, we’ve all witnessed the consequences of sticking with Paul Goldschmidt, winner of said MVP race, but Nolan Arenado is still young enough to remind fans of his offensive prowess. And if nothing else, his veteran presence on a young roster is something the Cardinals shouldn’t overlook. Believe it or not, this man can help the stagnant franchise get back on the path to prosperity.

Arenado can still adjust to St. Louis’ competitive schedule

Evaluating the NL central landscape, one can plausibly conclude that the Redbirds inspire the least enthusiasm of the group. The Milwaukee Brewers have a credible culture in place, the Cincinnati Reds do bringing in the future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona to raise an intriguing club, the Chicago Cubs should be willing to spend and the Pittsburgh Pirates hold the rights to the latest pitching phenom.

There’s not much of an outbreak in St. Louis right now. What the Cardinals do have, however, is crucial balance in their roster. Brendan Donovan is a reliable contact hitter (.280 batting average in 374 games), Masyn Winn could be a Gold Glove-level shortstop for the next decade, Alec Burleson adds needed pop (21 homers and 78 RBIs , a team high) and Lars Nootbaar has the ability to be an invaluable contributor if he can stay healthy. However, this group only concerns the youngest players.

There is established talent throughout the Cards clubhouse, including Nolan Arenado.

The Cardinals’ blend of youth and experience could produce a memorable 2025

If the 10-time Gold Glover (six-time Platinum) can figure out his swing, he can quickly return to being one of the best sluggers in the NL. That may seem like a big “if” for an aging star, but few active third basemen possess his qualifications.

Besides Arenado, there are plenty of other veterans who could compete for a division championship next year. Although the signing of Willson Contreras naturally arouses feelings of regret, particularly because he is be moved to first basethe three-time All-Star still wields a powerful bat. He hit 15 home runs in 84 games last season with a .468 average. Contreras appears to have plenty left in the tank, and a permanent transition out of receiver could give him the opportunity to prove it.

However, St. Louis doesn’t rely too much on its offense. He can trust multiple pitchers to pace the team on the mound.

Although Miles Mikolas is in a downward spiral that he may not be able to recover from, Sonny Gray has the tools to improve on the 3.84 ERA he recorded in 2024 (if he stays). The former Cy Young finalist actually lowered his walk rate and increased his strikeout rate last year, but was a little susceptible to long balls (he allowed a career-high 21 home runs).

Erick Fedde is enjoying a notable resurgence, and closer Ryan Helsley anchors a strong bullpen that ranks near the top of the NL. A sneaky lineup and an underrated pitching staff put the Cardinals in the playoff conversation. They just need to put everything together. Nolan Arenado could be their mainstay.

When trade rumors start swirling, there’s often no turning back. However, for the good of this club, a little questioning could lead to a surprise awakening.