At the start of its new five-year institutional cycle, the EU faces a rapidly changing external environment. The block Strategic Agenda 2024-2029 recognizes the unprecedented challenges, from combating climate change to global conflicts. To be able to meet the challenges of the future, the EU seeks to establish a greener and more sovereign Europe. Yet, combining a green transition with a strategically autonomous Europe remains a challenge in European capitals. In his confirmation hearing On November 7, European Commissioner for Climate Action Wopke Hoekstra recognized the tension between the EU’s net zero emissions targets and European competitiveness. Aligning the two concepts requires the EU to reduce risks, or avoid too much dependence on a single supplier, for its green ambitions. A so-called Green strategic autonomy framework would require the EU to use climate diplomacy to leverage its climate leadership to develop new partnerships that improve the bloc’s autonomy. Specifically, the EU can align its green ambitions with the promotion of green technologies and climate investments in Africa to shape a foreign policy that will advance a green and sovereign Europe.

Autonomy in a difficult environment

Since taking its permanent place in the EU lexicon in 2016, “strategic autonomy” has been at the forefront of European foreign policy. Initially defense focusedthe challenges of the 2020s have transformed strategic autonomy into a global concept for a resilient Europe. The COVID-19 pandemic, for example, has exposed the vulnerabilities of European global supply chains. Russia’s decision to suspend energy exports to European countries has further highlighted the EU’s dependence on third parties for the supply of essential goods and materials. These dependencies impact the EU’s ability to act autonomously as long as adversaries can exploit these critical vulnerabilities. This problem is not going unnoticed within the EU. In June 2023, the European Commission and the High Representative published the European Economic Security Strategyrecognizing how Europe’s economic ties can present security challenges. Yet the EU does not have the natural resources to support its essential supply chains within its territory. Thus, any strategy to establish a more autonomous Europe requires a foreign policy aimed at reducing major dependencies by strengthening its partnerships and diversifying its supply chains.

Reducing major dependencies while greening the European economy is not an easy task. Europe’s decarbonization goals require a transition to green technologies. Here, all roads lead to Beijing. China currently dominates the green technology industry. On 80 percent of the world’s production of solar modules takes place in China. In the same way, 77 percent electric vehicle batteries are manufactured by Chinese producers. Reducing the risks associated with these dependencies means that the EU will need to find ways to diversify its green technology portfolio. This requires a renewed focus on Africa.

Thus, any strategy to establish a more autonomous Europe requires a foreign policy aimed at reducing major dependencies by strengthening its partnerships and diversifying its supply chains.

The arguments in favor of climate diplomacy

To achieve its green agenda and reduce its dependence, the EU must deepen its partnerships with the developing world, and in particular with Africa. While China is the world’s largest producer of green energy, African countries are identifying their strategic opportunities in the green technology movement. Not only do 90 percent essential minerals needed for renewable energy production come from Africa, various African countries such as Kenya are becoming a hub for green energy development and green technology start-up. The strategic importance of Africa in the development of green industry does not go unnoticed. The United States and China are increasingly seeking opportunities to deepen their connections with different African countries. Yet both powers are neglecting to invest in an area of ​​crucial importance to these countries: climate change.

As developed countries work to protect their own economies from climate change, African countries are often left behind. Sustainability of debt levels limits the ability of African countries to finance national climate plans. The continent’s combined external debt has exceeded $1.1 trillion end of 2023. Kenya – a country that has experienced deadly protests this summer, following tax measures aimed at resolving debt problems – illustrates these problems well. Kenya’s debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 37 percent in 2010 to 68 percent in 2021. Recent interest rate hikes only make these problems worse. Countries like Kenya are accumulating more and more debt to pay off existing debt, leaving less money available to invest in climate plans. This makes external financing all the more important for Kenya to achieve its climate goals. Kenya 2020-2030 climate plans require that $54 billion of the estimated $62 billion come from external financing. Although Kenya has managed to attract significant investments in green technologies for various projects, the World Bank estimates the country still has a $5 billion deficit in its annual climate budget. While U.S. climate-related investments may see changes under the new White House administration in 2025, the continued availability of climate funds and partnerships such as the US-Kenya Industrial Partnership for Climate and Clean Energy is uncertain. This gives the EU the opportunity to step up its efforts.

The EU can work with countries like Kenya by aligning objectives to establish mutually beneficial partnerships. Kenyan President William Ruto summed up these opportunities best during his his speech at the European Parliament in November 2023, where he highlighted the role that Africa can play in creating a greener mining industry, fostering green industrialization and linking the EU’s climate ambitions to those of countries Africans.

Establish partnerships

Climate diplomacy begins by identifying ways to establish win-win partnerships. This requires the EU to view climate change through the eyes of its potential partners. Too often, European climate policies meet European net zero emissions targets. Climate-related policies such as Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – by imposing a tax on carbon-intensive production imported into the EU – neglects the realities of developing economies that depend on carbon-intensive production or raw materials. Instead, establishing mutually beneficial climate partnerships requires the EU to understand and recognize different non-Western capabilities in tackling climate change without impacting the economic development of partner countries.

From this understanding, the EU can align its geopolitical objectives with targeted climate investments. Beyond just development aid, the EU must work with and invest in African countries to boost African industrialization in line with climate goals. More precisely, climate investments must be unlocked. EU funds such as Global Gateway are a good first step. But more is needed. The EU can simultaneously help African countries meet their investment and debt sustainability needs through mechanisms such as debt for climate exchanges. Such swaps would provide countries like Kenya with a debt relief mechanism that would unlock capital to protect the economy against climate change.

Establishing mutually beneficial climate partnerships requires the EU to understand and recognize different non-Western capabilities in tackling climate change without impacting the economic development of partner countries.

Beyond public investments, the EU can stimulate private investments towards opportunity-rich African climate markets. Africa offers potential 2 trillion dollars climate adaptation market. However, private investment only represents 1.6% of adaptation financing. Europe’s knowledge and experience in public-private partnerships can help reduce the uncertainty and risks that keep businesses at bay. Organizations such as the European Investment Bank can create mixed financing mechanisms to create thriving green technology industries in Africa. Such mechanisms would help private companies reduce the initial financial burden of investing in volatile green technology industries, thereby making green industrial companies more profitable. In turn, these industries can help African countries realize their full green energy potential by creating regional green technology value chains rather than outsourcing production to China. To this end, the EU can take advantage of various already existing forums to stimulate dialogue and action between Europe and Africa, such as the ministerial meetings under the Africa-EU Partnership and the EU-Africa Business Forum.

Green strategic autonomy?

As the EU emerges from the first summer of its new institutional cycle, climate diplomacy offers the EU the opportunity to align two of the Union’s most pressing challenges. Fair partnerships in Africa would boost the EU’s global decarbonization goals. At the same time, advanced green industries in Africa would help the EU diversify its critical supply chains to reduce dependence. A green Europe must not interfere with the objective of an autonomous and more sovereign Europe. It simply requires the EU to act more strategically. By deepening partnerships in Africa, the EU can develop the links it needs to act autonomously without worrying about potential shocks to energy supply lines or climate technology imports from China. Climate diplomacy may not solve all of the EU’s autonomy or supply chain problems, but it paves the way for stronger partnerships.