The Minnesota Vikings are still in contention for the NFC North division lead when they face the Chicago Bears in Week 12.

Caleb Williams and the Bears have lost four straight games to fall to 4-6 on the season, and they will be home underdogs on Sunday against Minnesota.

Minnesota hasn’t looked as dominant as it did early in the season with Sam Darnold throwing five picks in his last three games, but the Vikings are still 8-2 and on a three-game winning streak heading into this match.

Using the latest odds and analysis, I’m trying to predict the final score of this match, which will hopefully give bettors an idea on which side – or total – to bet on on Sunday.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Money line

Total

Minnesota is 7-3 ATS this season, but they are two of the best teams in the league – hence the low total. The UNDER scored in seven of the ten regular season games for these two teams.

SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan believes UNDER is the play in this game, and he explained why in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every NFL game, every week:

The Vikings offense has shown some warning signs as of late, which makes me nervous about them scoring points against a defense as strong as the Bears. Instead, I will support the UNDER at 39.5. These two defenses have been among the best in the NFL this season. The Vikings lead the league in opponent EPA per game and the Bears come in seventh. They also rank first and eighth respectively in terms of success rate.

The Bears’ biggest strength on defense is their efficiency in the red zone, holding teams from scoring touchdowns on just 40.63 percent of red zone trips against them, the best mark in the NFL. If the Vikings are held to field goals instead of touchdowns, the UNDER have a good chance of conceding.

We all know the struggles the Bears offense has had this season, averaging just 4.5 yards per snap, second lowest in the league. The Vikings offense has also trended in the wrong direction and now only ranks 20th in EPA per play since Week 8.

Even though Chicago finally found the end zone in Week 11 after firing Shane Waldron, I don’t think I can trust this offense to put up enough points to win this game – even at home.

Final Score Prediction: Vikings 17, Bears 13

Ratings are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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