The big question now is whether the BJP will push for the chief minister’s post or let Eknath Shinde continue.

Mumbai:

Four hours after the counting of votes for the Maharashtra Assembly elections, the BJP-led Mahayuti looks set to score a landslide victory, bouncing back emphatically from its setback in this year’s Lok Sabha polls.

Mahayuti is currently leading with 221 of the 288 Assembly seats, scoring a comprehensive victory over opposition bloc Maha Vikas Aghadi, far behind with 56 seats. The BJP is at the top of the Mahayuti rankings, leading in 124 of the 148 seats it contested. . He was well supported by his allies – Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Both edged out their rival factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in an election seen as a fight to prove which faction is the ‘real Sena’ and the ‘real NCP’.

Although the Mahayuti camp has many reasons to celebrate today, complications wait in the wings. And these complications are similar to those that emerged after the 2019 Maharashtra elections, also won by the NDA.

Who will be the chief minister

The big question after the NDA victory is: who will be the next chief minister of Maharashtra? The BJP is the mainstay of the Mahayuti alliance and has recorded the best strike rate among all NDA allies. In this context, the party is expected to push for the chief minister’s post, with senior leader Devendra Fadnavis as the obvious choice. But the Shinde Sena could be stubborn and claim that the Mahayuti contested the elections with Eknath Shinde as the face of the government and that the state government’s policies and promises played a key role in securing a massive mandate in this election.

Earlier, when the rebellion led by Mr. Shinde had toppled the Uddhav Thackeray government and divided Shiv Sena, the BJP had taken the moral high ground by giving up the chief minister’s post. But with more than 120 MPs in their kitty, they may not be as generous this time around.

Moreover, as the three allies operate in their strongholds, this verdict creates fertile ground for difficult negotiations over ministerial posts.

A repeat in 2019?

Interestingly, the Maharashtra results may well create a situation similar to the post-election scenario of five years ago. In the 2019 state polls, the BJP had won 122 seats and the undivided Shiv Sena 63. After the results, differences emerged over the chief minister’s post. While Uddhav Thackeray claimed a deal on rotational chief ministership, the BJP denied any such pact. Ultimately, the Sena ended the process, ending one of the most enduring alliances in the BJP’s history. Five years later, Maharashtra’s political landscape has many other players, with two factions, the Sena and the NCP, waging an identity battle. And this time, going by the numbers, the BJP and Eknath Shinde are where the BJP and Uddhav Thackeray were five years ago. The question then is: Will Mr. Shinde blink or will this victory create a bigger challenge for the BJP? Giving up the post of chief minister may be considered a resignation and pushing for the post risks causing a rift within the alliance. There is, however, a big difference compared to 2019. With Ajit Pawar’s NCP doing well, the BJP only needs one in two allies to reach the magic number. The Shinde Sena will keep this in mind while pushing for any negotiations.

Speaking to the media as the trends clearly showed an NDA advantage, Mr. Shinde had a cautious response to the Chief Minister’s question. “We will sit down and decide,” he said, adding, “(Prime Minister Narendra) Modji is our senior.”

Subplot of Maha Vikas Aghadi

The major story of this election is the stunning setback suffered by the Congress-led Indian alliance, which won 30 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the general elections a few months ago. The Maha Vikas Aghadi is now leading with just 52 seats, while the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) are leading with 19, 19 and 14 seats respectively.

Buoyed by its excellent result in the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress negotiated hard to get the best deal during seat-sharing. With the opposition party failing to convert these elections into victories, the Congress will be the target of criticism and could be accused of bringing down the alliance. Politically, this is a huge setback for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in the fight for their party’s identity. The two leaders, trying to bounce back from mutinies that split their parties, now face an identity crisis as dissident factions perform far better than their camps.