Donald Trump’s new administration inherits a burning house in the Middle East, but there are big opportunities for victory there if his new team is willing to be bold.

That will require risky foreign policy moves that might not fit the domestic focus of his campaign — but down that path could lie a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump.

“Trump wants to ‘win,'” said Robert Hamilton, director of Eurasia research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. “This could range from winning a war with Iran to brokering a far-reaching regional peace deal. »

It would also be a fundamental shift from the Biden administration’s approach, which often seemed indecisive and risk-averse, and focused more on de-escalation than solutions. In many Arab countries, where weakness is disdained, there is an opening for a paradigm shift.

Such a change would involve the risk of escalation with Iran, where the threat of force may be necessary. It would also require offering not only the expected support but also unwavering love to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose supporters gleefully expect to have a free hand on all fronts.

Trump’s foreign policy cabinet choices so far are certainly consistent with the former. Senator Marco Rubio (directed to the state), Mike Waltz (National Security Advisor) and Pete Hegseth (Defense) are all different types of appointments – Rubio stands out as a widely perceived pragmatist – but all are Iran hawks.

If Trump succeeds in all of this – and in ending the war in Ukraine on terms that are not seen as a capitulation to Vladimir Putin – it would be a validation of the legacy of a new and old president who does not has generally not enjoyed much credit in the world.

This is a road map that the next administration could follow to make the Middle East great again.

Iran: an ultimatum?

“This regime can no longer be appeased” Rubio recently said about the Iranian mullahs – and turning this into policy would be a big step in the right direction.

It could come down to something simple: Iran must abandon its mandated militias and nuclear program or face the consequences. An ultimatum would constitute a clean break from Biden’s “reengagement” approach, which, like his predecessors, has allowed the regime to sow chaos through proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias Shiites in Iraq.

Hezbollah is now hit hard by Israel, but Iran continues: send Shiite militias and Houthi fighters from Yemen to the failed state of Syria, to aid Hezbollah, threaten neighboring Israel and potentially destabilize US ally Jordan.

An ultimatum would risk war, but allowing the mullahs to remain in power as a nuclear threshold state could be the greater risk. Attack on Iran could trigger revolt against hated regime 30% inflation and a 25% drop in the value of the rial over three months, in part because of its unpopular financing of foreign wars. It might collapse, which would be a favor to the world.

Dr. Meir Javedanfar, an Israeli Middle East analyst of Iranian origin, agreed that “the Iranians fear a new uprising and feel weaker than in the past,” but warned that “they will be more amenable to a negotiation with Trump” than a capitulation.

Qatar: putting an end to double-dealing

While Qatar is home to the US air base at Al Udeid, it also provides a haven for Hamas, allowing the group to operate on its soil and channel funds to Gaza.

Hamas leaders currently based in Qatar include Khaled Mashal, the group’s foreign envoy, and Khalil al-Hayya, a senior adviser. Qatar is reportedly close to agreeing expel them – a good start.

Putting an end to Qatar’s double game would be appreciated by Sunni states, including Saudi Arabia, whose collaboration will be necessary for the continuation of the plan. Trump’s team should also consider a global hunt for jihad financing networks, a complex web of shenanigans in Europe and the United States, which allowed Hamas to function.

For Qatar, the days of quietly funding militant activities while claiming the US alliance may soon be over.

Lebanon: Demanding accountability

Hezbollah receives approximately $700 million per year of Iran and, until recently, controlled perhaps a quarter of Lebanon and used the south of the country as a launching pad against Israel. The group has been bombing the north for about a year, since the day after the Hamas massacre on October 7, even before Israel sent a single soldier to Gaza.

Now that Israel has defeated Hezbollah, a deal could be reached even before Trump’s inauguration on the military reconquest of the south by the Lebanese army – perhaps with the help of the Arab League or even a force international.

Regardless, the clear message should be: allowing Hezbollah to operate is no longer acceptable.

Jonathan ElKhoury, a Lebanese-born and Israel-based geopolitical analyst, believes Lebanon is ready for change.

“The current war has seen a significant decline in the support Hezbollah receives… including within the ranks of the Shiite community,” said ElKhoury, who is closely following developments in his home country. “The Lebanese army has remained neutral and is able to enforce its sovereignty in southern Lebanon, with financial support and additional forces stationed in the region. »

Yemen: defending global trade

The Houthis, an Iran-aligned militant group, have not only caused devastation in Yemen but I also disrupted a third of global container traffic and about a sixth of global maritime trade – with bold attacks against at least 130 commercial ships crossing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait last year, justified by “solidarity” with the Palestinians.

Biden’s response, limited to a few airstrikes coordinated with British forces, failed to deter them.

According to IMF data, weekly trade via the Suez Canal fell from more than 5 million metric tons weekly to less than 2 million thereby, with a corresponding increase in maritime traffic around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. This is an extremely expensive proposal that has also deprived struggling Egypt of $6 billion in revenueaccording to Trade Winds News.

The Trump administration could tell the Houthis that further aggression would be met with overwhelming force, signaling that economic stability and freedom of navigation are U.S. priorities, not a bargaining chip.

Israel: support – with limits

Yes, the Trump team, especially Ambassador-designate Mike Huckabee, loves Israel – but that doesn’t mean they will support all of Netanyahu’s machinations.

The prime minister plans to postpone a commission of inquiry into the Oct. 7 debacle until after the fighting is over, making the case for the kind of forever war that Trump despises.

Unlike Lebanon, there is an Israeli complication here: Netanyahu’s coalition depends on far-right parties that want to occupy and colonize Gaza, and it blocks the replacement of Hamas with a rejuvenated Palestinian Authority, which is the only plausible option.

If Israel accepted this and agreed to further negotiations on a settlement with the Palestinians, it could persuade Saudi Arabia rejoins the Abraham Accords – perhaps Trump’s biggest success of the first term.

In fact, this is what the new envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoffa real estate investor with direct ties to Trump, is there for that. The message to Netanyahu would be: The United States stands with Israel when it comes to fighting jihadist terrorists, but then we must restore the 2020 plan for a Palestinian state which you have already accepted.

In the eyes of Trump, as well as many Israelis, a demilitarized Palestinian state would actually benefit Israel, by preserving its Jewish majority. Netanyahu has lionized Trump so much that Israelis expect him not to show the disrespect he has for Biden.

Türkiye: a NATO ally under surveillance

Trump could demand that Turkey stop supporting Hamas and abandon its flirtations with Russia – emphasizing that support for terrorists is incompatible with obligations as a NATO ally. Furthermore, it could pressure Turkey to finally acknowledge its role in the Armenian genocide, thereby encouraging a reconciliation with history that could pave the way for more transparent relations and a healthy environment in the Caucasus. South.

Sunni Arab allies: a bolder partnership

Moderate Sunni Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, may find themselves pushed to take a bolder stance on Hamas and its ilk – not just muttering, but a break clear and irreversible with the various mafias that are destabilizing the region.

Sunni states could be asked to support the demilitarization of a Palestinian state. If Israel continues and Saudi Arabia joins the circle of peace, the next domino should be a Sunni-Israeli-US security alliance as a bulwark against Iran.

The Palestinians: demands for reforms

The Palestinian Authority should continue to receive support from the United States – which is what the Israeli security services want – but also demonstrate real reform: ending anti-Semitic rhetoric in educational materials, not flirt with Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad and accept demilitarization.

The Trump administration could backtrack from the long-standing demand for an “end to demands” in exchange for independence, which led to maximalism, to seal the deal. For the PA, this could be a transformative opportunity to finally achieve statehood.

Dan Perry is the former Associated Press regional editor for Europe, Africa and the Middle East, chaired the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem and is the author of two books on Israel. Follow him at danperry.substack.com