It is sometimes possible to forget in a chaotic world, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drags on, as does Ukraine’s defense against its aggressor. It is regrettable to overlook this ongoing bloody conflict, as recent developments have heightened tensions between Russia and its allies, on the one hand, and the United States and NATO, on the other. Not the least of these developments: the outgoing Biden administration’s late decision to let Ukraine use U.S. missiles against targets in Russia – leaving an exhausted Ukraine, the new Trump administration and the world to do so. facing the consequences.

Climb after climb

“President Biden authorized Ukraine to use long-range U.S.-supplied missiles for strikes inside Russia for the first time,” said Adam Entous, Eric Schmitt and Julian E. Barnes of The New York Times reported last week. “These weapons will likely be used initially against Russian and North Korean troops to defend Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of western Russia, the officials said.”

The United States is also supply of previously withheld antipersonnel mines.

The mention of North Korean troops refers to a previous escalation in North Korea. sent thousands of soldiers to Russia to assist its ally’s war of aggression. Ukraine quickly took advantage of the loosening of the reins by strike a Russian military base with American manufacturing ATACMS missiles. Russia then upped the ante further using a nuclear-capable ballistic missilethreats against use nuclear weaponsand indications that this could strike a US military base in Poland. The latter solution would constitute an explicit attack on NATO and would require a response from all its members.

That is to say, the ugly, brutal two-and-a-half-year-old invasion of Ukraine not only shows no end in sight, but appears poised to expand. And it’s intensifying at a time when the United States is transitioning from a lame-duck president of questionable mental capacity to a new administration that won’t take office until January.

Late authorization to retaliate

Some of this timing can be blamed on the Biden administration. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, that country’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and other officials have asked for weapons and, just as importantly,authorisation to use them as they deem necessary. Instead, the United States and other Western countries have supplied weapons selectively, with strict restrictions on how and where they can be used.

“Mr Zelensky’s frustration is understandable” The economist observed in September. “In international law, the right of self-defense allows striking positions from which the aggressor’s attacks are launched or permitted.” The economist “The real reason for Mr. Biden’s reluctance is almost certainly fear of Russian escalation. Yet so many so-called Russian red lines have been crossed that Mr. Putin’s warnings have lost much of their power “

The result has been that Russia has been largely able to use threats of escalation and even attacks against the West to define the conditions under which Ukraine must defend itself. This ensures a dragging out war, in which Ukrainians are encouraged to keep fighting but are not given the means to do their best.

No one to manage the crisis

Finally easing restrictions now that Joe Biden’s chosen successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, has lost the election and the federal establishment is preparing for new civilian leadership and different policies, is bizarre. This fuels heightened international tensions while America is in a poor position to manage a new (or growing) crisis.

That leaves Europe and the rest of NATO to manage the conflict on its eastern border. The rest of NATO, to put it mildly, is not really up to the task.

“The British Army – America’s main military ally and Europe’s biggest defense spender – has only about 150 deployable tanks and perhaps a dozen long-range artillery pieces. usable range,” said Max Colchester, David Luhnow and Bojan Pancevski of The Wall Street Journal reported last December. “France, the second biggest spender, has fewer than 90 pieces of heavy artillery, equivalent to what Russia loses approximately every month on the battlefield in Ukraine. Denmark has no heavy artillery, neither submarines nor air defense systems The German army has enough ammunition for two days of battle.

NATO leaders are well aware of this problem, noting last month that “the combined wealth of non-US Allies, measured in GDP, is almost equal to that of the United States. However, non-U.S. Allies together spend less than half of what the United States spends on defense. »

President-elect Donald Trump has made a problem of this lagoutright threatening to refuse to defend countries that fail to meet their military funding obligations. This could be quite a trap with neighboring Canada, potentially the worst parasite of the group; in an evaluation leak has The Washington JobPentagon analysts say Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told NATO officials his country will “never spend” NATO’s required 2% of GDP on defense.

But even if Trump succeeds in getting European allies to take more responsibility for threats on their own continent, it will take months and years to come. At the same time, tensions are growing with an interim administration in Washington, D.C. and hollow militaries among most NATO countries.

Ukrainians may be too exhausted to benefit

Ukrainians are perhaps the most tired of a war that drags on and consumes soldiers who do not know where and how to strike the enemy.

“Ukrainians are increasingly skeptical about rapid accession to NATO and the EU,” finds Gallupwhich notes “increasing weariness with the war and tensions in Ukraine’s relations with its main Western allies”.

It is important to note that “52% on average of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as quickly as possible.” according to to the survey company. On the other hand, “nearly four in ten Ukrainians (38%) think that their country should continue to fight until victory.” That’s down from the start of the war, when 73 percent of respondents wanted to fight until Ukraine won.

Encouraging Ukrainians to fight, but with their hands tied, for two and a half years, destroyed the population, wealth and will of the country. The Biden administration not only waited for an inopportune domestic political moment to ease restrictions on Ukraine’s defense efforts; it has taken so long that Ukrainians may no longer be able to benefit from the new rules.

Whether or not Ukraine can benefit from the easing of restrictions, or whether the Europeans are prepared to contain the conflict in the east, the war in Ukraine is escalating. We are stumbling toward even greater danger.