Last update:November 27, 2024, 1:47 p.m. IST

GDP growth is expected to slow to between 6.2 and 6.9 percent this quarter due to factors such as heavy rains and weak corporate margins.

India’s Q2 GDP data will be available on November 29, 2024 at 4 p.m.

India’s GDP growth data for the final July-September quarter 2024 (Q2 FY25) is expected to be released on Thursday at 4 p.m. Analysts say GDP is expected to slow to 6.2-6.9 percent this quarter due to factors such as heavy rains and weak corporate margins.

In the previous quarter of June 2024 (Q1FY25), the Indian economy grew by 6.7%. In the corresponding quarter of last year (Q2 FY24), the country had recorded an economic growth of 7.6 percent.

In the final quarter of FY25, Bank of Baroda expects GDP growth of 6.9 percent, while IDFC First Bank pegs it at 6.2 percent. Rating agencies ICRA and India Ratings said growth was expected to continue at 6.5 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively. The State Bank of India (SBI) expects growth to slow to 6.5 percent and global financial services company Nomura forecasts GDP growth in the second quarter of FY25 at 6.3 percent.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects Indian GDP to grow by 6.8 percent in the second quarter, according to its October bulletin. It is lower than its previous estimate of 7 percent.

“India’s GDP growth is estimated to slow to 6.5% in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 due to factors such as heavy rains and weak corporate margins. While government expenditure and kharif sowing have shown positive trends, the industrial sector, particularly mining and power, is expected to slow down,” ICRA said in its note.

He added, however, that despite these challenges, the services sector is expected to improve and an eventual recovery is expected, leading to GDP growth of 7.0 percent for the full year. .

However, risks such as a slowdown in personal loan growth and geopolitical uncertainties remain, ICRA said.

SBI in its report said, “Indicators of consumption and demand, agriculture, industry, services and other indicators, which indicate a decline in the second quarter of FY25. “Percentage of indicators showing acceleration fell to 69 percent in Q2 FY25 from 80 percent in Q2 FY24 and 78 percent in Q1 FY25.”

He, however, added that the expected dynamism in the third and fourth quarter growth figures could further push the overall annual GDP growth closer to 7 per cent in FY25.