Did you watch the Mike Tyson-Jake Paul fight? What money it was, everything shows and nothing helps. The women’s welterweight fight that preceded it, Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano, was bloody, brutal and incredible. It reminded me that many women are much tougher and meaner than men, and these two were fierce until the last second. That wasn’t the case with old “Iron Mike.” He looked stiff and a little boring, like he’d taken a Xanax before the fight and was just waiting for it to be over. His tattooed opponent is an Instagram influencer I’ve never heard of, but he has over 29 million followers! I don’t know why, since he looks to me like a bouncer at a Las Vegas strip club. But what do I know? There’s no doubt that this guy can sell energy drinks, chewing tobacco, and tequila coolers all day long. However, I made this connection: these two pugilists explain the art market today.

I perused the recent New York auction previews in bewilderment, while disagreeing with everyone I met. (I’m a born non-conformist.) One high-level advisor, a former auction house director, said, “Isn’t that great?” It’s a market bottom! As I looked at all the estimates in the hundreds of thousands and millions of dollars, I joked, “How do you know?” He said he lived through the 90s and it was like this now. I responded that when I worked on Wall Street, we were taught to “never catch a falling knife.” There is actually no reason to believe that the prices of our art market darlings have bottomed out.

The sculptures of Jeff Koons New Hoover Celebrity IV, New Hoover Convertible, New Shelton 5 Gallon Wet/Dry, New Shelton 10 Gallon Dual Stage Wet/Dry (1981-1986) on display during a press preview for Christie’s Fall 20/21 Marquee Week in New York, November 8, 2024. Photo: Kent Betancur/AFP via Getty Images

Seriously, no one can choose between the lows and the highs, not even Steve Cohen! Many great works by Andy Warhol, Jeff Koons and Christopher Wool were selling at or below their estimates last week, and in some cases, artists like Mark Grotjahn were selling for 80% of their highs. According to the FT (yes, I subscribe), turnover at the two big houses is down around 40 per cent compared to last year. Anyone who doesn’t feel the market is changing is simply in denial. So, how can we understand this phenomenon, when the interest rate cuts continue and the stock market reaches historic highs? The Tyson-Paul fight gives us a glimpse…

“Iron Mike” is undoubtedly one of the greatest boxers of all time, with an incredible punch that, at the peak of his career, flattened his opponents. Today, he is more famous than ever, like these great artists of the last stock market cycle. But he lost his stamina and had to stick to two-minute laps rather than three minutes because he’s old. He lost power, and so did they. Market darlings from last night’s sale are selling for 50 cents on the dollar from their peak. The advisor claims it’s a Buy Now, but I’m not so sure. Yes, they were and are my heroes, since this is the art I experienced in galleries, museums and the largest private collections. But just because they’re worth less now doesn’t mean they can’t fall further.

That of René Magritte The Empire of Enlightenment (1954) is on display during a press preview for Christie’s Fall 20/21 Marquee Week in New York, November 8, 2024. Photo: Kent Betancur/AFP via Getty Images

You might wonder how most of the art market can look like Mike Tyson when a Magritte sells for $121 million and a banana sells for $6.2 million. These prices belong in a separate category: they are just outliers. They are not part of the “real” collectors’ market. They are trophies for billionaires. If, as the Web reports, the Magritte was bought by the omnipresent Ken Griffin, it’s good for him. It’s a pretty cool painting to have, even though the artist made several. But Griffin made as much as $4 billion in a single year, so the purchase would represent about 3% of his revenue. And what do you think of the incredible Ed Ruscha, who was rumored to have been purchased by Jeff Bezos for $68.3 million? Also throw this result away, because the man could literally spend any amount without even realizing it.

Who are our Jake Pauls of the art world, you ask? This market is full of them, and they’re actually more powerful than you think. Instagram influencers and TikTok performers are like speculators who fuel the market, whether for Nicholas Party or Jonas Wood. Among them are Asian buyers who continue to sell these works into the stratosphere. And let’s not forget the Hilary Pecis multiples that cost over a million dollars each. As much as I appreciate the artist, these prices are absurd. That said, Wood’s auction results regularly exceed this figure, as do those of Rashid Johnson (like those of many other artists).

All this will continue until the day the speculators stop, and then these artists will also find a new level. The Jake Pauls of the art world have cornered this market, and they’re not giving it back yet. They’re busy finding the next hot button and bidding to the roof. The art market loves soaring prices at auction, but be careful: once the tide turns, there are often no bids or just a few of the punters who keep catching falling knives.

Artist Maurizio Cattelan Actor is seen during a press preview for Sotheby’s evening auction on October 25, 2024 in New York. Photo: John Nacion/Getty Images

But back to the Cattelan Banana. Doesn’t this show the strength of the market? Editions of the work sold for between $120,000 and $150,000 in Miami Basel in 2019, and one has now exceeded $6 million five years later. Sorry, but as a fan of Cattelan, having had a secondary market exhibition of his work at my gallery, and a patron of his 2012 retrospective at the Guggenheim, I find the banana rather uninteresting. At best, it’s worth a laugh.

However, none of that matters because Jake Pauls love it, and we know why; the secret is in the crypto. This was the only lot of the week that announced it could be purchased with cryptocurrency, in fact. The crypto kings and NFT bros were all over this thing. Its title, Actorsays it all. This banana was an instant meme. In fact, before the sale, a cryptocurrency called Comedian launched with some success. Imagine if it was backed by the real banana. It would fly away! The crypto scene appreciates anything that pokes fun at the velvet-rope art world. They place no value on goods, much less paintings or sculptures, unless they are related to technology. I tried to show art to Ryan Zurrer and Cosimo de Medici, two of the banana’s underbidders, who are both crypto and NFT kings, but I couldn’t convince them to engage. The winning bidder for the bananas, thirty-something billionaire Justin Sun, was really just buying a boatload of publicity. He clearly loves seeing his name in print, and that’s what he got. Immediately after winning the prize, he took to Twitter and announced his victory.

Mike Tyson, a world-renowned and battle-tested champion, will always be famous, but he is long past his prime. Jake Paul, the savvy influencer who figured out how to use Tyson’s fame to sell millions of dollars worth of pay-per-views on Netflix, is in his prime and prime time. He’s the smart one here. I don’t think we’re close to the bottom of the market. Some things are still progressing, but many things still have a long way to go. I am sure that a rebound will come. The Jake Pauls of the art world are going to decide what that rebound looks like, and they’re gaining influence whether we like it or not. They will choose their own favorites and no doubt surprise us again.