The PFL continues to make poor decisions regarding its format and promotion of the organization, but that’s a discussion for another column.

This Friday’s card features some intriguing fights. There are 6 championship fights, with the winner of each taking home the belt and $1 million. The viewership and exposure of the PFL is dwarfed by the alpha present in the UFC room and as a result I am of the opinion that punters are not as sharp in some of their offerings, which offers to bettors great value in a few of these fights. I break down my top 3 main card bets.

Odds via DraftKings Sports Betting

Prediction Brendan Loughnane (+260) vs. Timur Khizriev (-325)

Brendan Loughnane is your favorite fighter’s favorite fighter. Very well rounded, good on the microphone and tough as nails. He has 35 professional fights and won the 2022 PFL featherweight tournament, winning the championship and the $1 million prize. You can never count him out in a fight, but his opponent, Timur Khizriev, comes in as a 3-to-1 favorite for a reason.

If Loughnane is able to keep his distance and prevent Khizriev from taking this fight to the mat, he has a path to victory, by closing in and using dirty boxing. I expect Khizriev to pick up the pace and use his superior grappling to drag this fight out and get it on the scorecards. I also expect Loughnane’s experience to play a role and wouldn’t be surprised if he steals a round or two.

This is a fight I can’t wait to watch, but I don’t like any of the price tags, whether it’s moneyline or props. The absolute best value I’ve seen most closely matches my analysis of this fight and that’s for Khizriev to raise his hand after winning all three scorecards after a very tough fight. I’ll take Loughnane with the points here as my best bet for this piece.

Choose: Loughnane +5.5 -110

Prediction Dakota Ditcheva (-395) vs. Taila Santos (+280)

On a stacked card with the Mancurians, Ditcheva is probably the most intriguing fighter of the group. His rise to stardom in the sport was rapid and for good reason. She will certainly have the crowd from her hometown of Manchester by her side. She is 13-0, with 12 finishes in her professional career and if the PFL could get their act together, she could be a true star and well-known name in mixed martial arts.

Her opponent, Talia Santos, is an MMA veteran with some wins against some very impressive fighters during her UFC career, including Gillian Robertson, Roxanne Modaferri and Joanne Wood. After losing a split decision in a title fight to Valentina Shevchenko and being shut out against Erin Blanchfield, then released by the UFC, Santos has been on a nice little run here since joining the PFL with a score 3-0 and now fights for the million dollars and the flyweight title.

Unfortunately for Santos, she arrived at the PFL while Ditcheva was on her rise to stardom. Santos is an above average striker and has the grappling advantage, but I don’t see her being able to consistently get into Ditcheva’s guard to get takedowns without catching one to the side of her temple .

Ditcheva must be aware that a spectacular performance and a finish here will make her a star and one of the best 125-pounders on the planet. I think Santos will be able to keep the pace for a lap or two but eventually Ditcheva will be too strong and secure the finish. The best price I found that fits this analysis would be for the fight not to start the fourth round at more money.

Choice: the fight will not start in Round 4 +105

Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov (+145) vs Impa Kasanganay (-175) Prediction

Unfortunately for Impa Kasanganay, when most UFC fans mention his name, it is instantly associated with the fact that he was knocked out by a back kick from Joaquin Buckley, a finish that inspired countless memes. Although it will never be forgotten, he did everything in his power to continue to distance himself from that night.

Kasanganay has been in tears since joining the PFL. After being released from the UFC in 2021, Kasanganay struggled to stay active and became homeless for 6 months, living in his car so he could stay near his gym and continue training, rather than to return home to North Carolina with his parents. .

He is 9-1 in his last 10 matches, winning the $1 million LHW tournament last season, with his only loss coming in a controversial split decision to Johnny Eblen in a Bellator crossover fight.

He comes in as the favorite in this fight for good reason. Yagshimuradov is an experienced fighter and on a 6 fight winning streak. The Ukrainian uses his experience in Sambo to stay in front of his opponent, take him to the mat and not let go, winning decision after decision.

Kasangany is simply more complete, younger and faster and is a bad matchup for Yagshimuradov.

The Ukrainian has some power, but I expect Kasaganay to cut the cage and avoid any strikes Yagshimuradov throws at him.

Looking at the cage time between these guys and their somewhat contrasting styles, I see that reflected in the scorecards with Kasanganay.

If you look closely at all the markets for this fight, you’ll see that bettors have a pretty big spread between EXACT METHOD OF VICTORY DEC (-110) and KASANGANAY VIA DEC (+175), with a swing of 85 cents. I’m skipping the whole gamble at this price.

Choice: Kasanganay via decision (+175)

Ratings are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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