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What Trump’s economic choices could predict for the second administration
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What Trump’s economic choices could predict for the second administration

President-elect that of Donald Trump choice to guide economic politics in his new administration is a mix of sober but diverse loyalists eager to implement his taxes, spending and efforts. price agenda.

In recent weeks, Trump has announced nominees for the Cabinet and other high-level positions in his administration. Unlike some of his Cupboard Choices that have sparked backlash because they are unorthodox, his choices to carry out economic policy are made by experienced individuals who seem united in their desire to realize his vision for the country.

Trump chose hedge fund manager Scott Bessent to lead the Treasury Department, businessman Howard Lutnick as Commerce secretary and Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR) as Labor secretary. He also chose Kevin Hassett as director of the National Economic Council and Jamieson Greer as U.S. trade representative.

The market has largely reacted positively to Trump’s choices. Although they are united in their support for the president-elect, the choices nevertheless present some ideological differences.

“I think the trend in Trump’s economic policy appointments is that he’s looking for loyalty above all else,” said Brian Riedl, a budget expert at the conservative Manhattan Institute. Washington Examiner. “Ideology seems to be secondary because his advisors actually run the gamut from traditional conservatives to populists and even economic liberals.”

For example, Hassett fits the traditional mold and likely would have been comfortable in any Republican administration of years past. Chavez-DeRemer, on the other hand, is something of a pro-union populist. Lutnick and Greer, who will lead the trade agenda, appear very much in sync with Trump’s desire to impose (or at least threaten to impose) tariffs.

Taxes

One of the new administration’s main goals is to extend, and perhaps expand, expired provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The slate of advisers will be key to promoting and implementing broader tax cuts, a job that will be made easier by Republican majorities in the House and Senate.

“That will have to be the No. 1 goal of this entire group: to get Congress to use the reconciliation process to extend these tax cuts and also implement the specific proposals that the president has made,” said the former Rep. David McIntosh (R-IN), who is now president of the conservative Club for Growth, told the Washington Examiner.

For example, Trump promised to exempt taxes on tips and eliminate taxes on Social Security during his election campaign.

Getting Republicans in the House and Senate to carry out some of his demands could prove a little more difficult than others. Trump has said he wants to further cut the corporate tax rate to 15% and lift the cap on state and local tax deductions – policy changes that would worsen the country’s already high deficits and the national debt, which has just exceed $36 trillion last week.

“What will be interesting is to see how they approach something like fiscal policy,” said Shai Akabas, executive director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. Washington Examiner.

Akabas noted that some of Trump’s economic choices have indicated that they prioritize fiscal rigor and responsibility. Akabas pointed out that Bessent had talked about reducing deficits, which would pose a challenge in upcoming tax negotiations.

“So we won’t know how they square the circle and think about the broader fiscal picture in the context of some of the policies they plan to put in place before the new administration takes office, but it “It’s a question to keep in mind,” he said.

Cryptocurrency

McIntosh pointed out that Bessent and Hassett’s choices indicate that Trump will deliver on his promise to open up “free market innovation” in the cryptocurrency space.

Trump has been a strong advocate for crypto this election cycle, which has propelled bitcoin to new heights in anticipation of a friendly administration. Bessent, himself an investor in space, will play a key role in bringing this project to fruition.

“Crypto is about freedom, and the crypto economy is here to stay,” Bessent said Fox Business this year. “Crypto attracts young people, people who haven’t participated in the markets.”

Prices

One of the most important topics on the agenda for Trump and his economic team in his final term will be on the trade front.

During Trump’s first term, he succeeded used Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which gives the president broad authority to levy tariffs in the event of a threat to national security, to impose a 25 percent tariff on imported steel and a 10% duty on aluminum.

Josh McCabe, director of social policy at the Niskanen Center, noted that Trump has talked about tariffs this election cycle not only to get fairer trade deals but also to offset his tax agenda.

“He has been much clearer this time that he wants tariffs to play some role in raising revenue,” McCabe told the newspaper. Washington Examiner.

Trump has already announced surprise prices. In a social media post last week, Trump said he would put tariffs into effect against Mexico and Canada on January 20, 2025, the day of his inauguration. The 25% tariffs are designed to force both countries to stop the flow of goods. narcotics and illegal immigrants in the United States.

In addition, Trump promised additional 10% tariffs on China for its role in producing some of the ingredients used to produce fentanyl that flows to users in the United States.

Trump’s most aggressive idea is to impose across-the-board tariffs of 10 to 20 percent, although he has also pushed for a legal change that would give him the power to unilaterally impose tariffs of equal size imposed by other countries in the United States. need congressional approval.

Tad DeHaven, a policy analyst at the libertarian Cato Institute who generally opposes tariffs, said the tariffs could pose more of a threat and a way to force countries to acquiesce.

“But you know, at the same time, it’s not good for business investment,” he told the Washington Examiner. “It creates a lot of uncertainty. And if your goal is to grow the economy, you should seek to reduce barriers, not increase them.

Unions

Perhaps Trump’s most surprising economic choice is Chavez-DeRemer. It could prompt the administration to be more pro-worker this time around.

“I guess a big difference from the first one is probably the secretary of the Department of Labor,” McIntosh said of the choice compared to Trump’s first term.

In Congress, Chavez-DeRemer supported the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, legislation that the overwhelming majority of Republicans strongly oppose.

The PRO Act would make sweeping changes to the jobs landscape, including adjusting the types of workers who can be classified as independent contractors. It would essentially end right-to-work laws, which have been enacted in 27 states to prevent unions from requiring employees to pay dues or fees. Employees with collective bargaining agreements may be required to pay union dues, pursuant to the PRO Act.

Grover Norquist, founder of the powerful low-tax advocacy group Americans for Tax Reform, told the Washington Examiner last week, Trump’s choice is “a little inexplicable.”

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, director of the center-right think tank American Action Forum, said Chavez-DeRemer’s support for the PRO Act is a lightning rod for conservatives and will likely be the toughest economic choice to make. pass through the Senate. .

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Overall, Holtz-Eakin, who is also the former director of the Congressional Budget Office, said the list of economic choices is basically a microcosm of Trump’s orbit.

“The candidate, now president-elect, can take policy positions, and the Cabinet carries them out,” Holtz-Eakin said. “So he has people who have been loyally committed to acting on it from the beginning.”