VIENNA — The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil cartel and its allies are expected to extend their supply cuts on Thursday to avoid a sharp drop in prices in a global market flooded with crude.

However, the disagreements that caused the delay of the meeting originally scheduled for Sunday have created doubts about its ability to maintain the declines that have supported the rise in prices.

“OPEC+ is expected to decide on Thursday to postpone the production increase for another three months, until the end of the first quarter,” said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank.

“Nevertheless, uncertainties remain,” he added, while some countries want to increase their production.

The virtual meeting is expected to start around 11:30 a.m. GMT (7 p.m. in Manila), said a source close to the Vienna-based OPEC organization.

Without a new agreement, the eight countries that voluntarily reduced their additional production by 2.2 million barrels per day would have to start increasing their production from January to gradually bring it back to 2022 levels.

Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have already twice postponed production increases which were due to start in October and then in December.

Dissatisfied countries

The supply cuts are having only a muted impact on the market, with US President-elect Donald Trump expected to enact policies to boost US oil production, while the outlook for Chinese demand is dull and its economy languishes.

“Our current assessments suggest that even if OPEC+ cuts remain in place, global supply will exceed demand by more than a million barrels per day next year,” the International OPEC Agency said. energy last month.

OPEC+ countries are currently withholding 6 million barrels of oil per day, including the 2.2 million barrels per day of production they plan to release back to the market.

Analysts at DNB Bank said “there is no room for additional OPEC+ oil in 2025” in the market, and that an increase in production would depress crude prices.

This would displease Saudi Arabia, which relies on high oil prices to finance its efforts to diversify its economy.

Saudi Arabia is heavily dependent on high prices “for its Vision 2030 and needs a united OPEC with production cuts,” said Amena Bakr, an analyst at Energy Intelligence.

With Saudi Arabia and Russia dominating OPEC+, many analysts expect them to eventually convince other countries to agree to further delay in supply increases.

However, Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said that “other countries would like to increase their production”, particularly Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates, and “have a lot of spare capacity”.

Production limits are only effective if they are respected, and earlier this year the cartel denounced Iraq and Kazakhstan for exceeding their quotas.

In June, the United Arab Emirates secured an additional quota of 300,000 barrels per day in 2025, increasing tensions with other countries seeking to increase production.