MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom takes an in-depth look at the UFC’s biggest fights. Today, he is more interested in UFC 310 main event between flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja and promotional newcomer Kai Asakura.

Overview of Alexandre Pantoja

Staple Information:

• Record: 28-5 MMA, 12-3 UFC
• Height: 5’5″ Age: 34 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68″
• Last Stand : Victory by decision against Steve Erceg (May 4, 2024)
• Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
• Striking position/style: orthodox/muay thai
• Risk management: Fair

Additional information:
+ UFC Flyweight Champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Muay Thai amateur rewards
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 10 submissions won
+ 10 finishes in the first round
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Counts well in combination
+ Hard kicks
+ Strong melee fighter
^ Good knees and hit the breaks
+Underrated fighting ability
+ Superb transition grappler
^ Smooth submissions, good pitches and books

Overview of Kai Asakura

Kai Asakura def. Juan Archuleta in Rizin 45

Staple Information:

• 21-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC
• Height: 5’8″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Scope: N/A »
• Last Stand : TKO victory over Juan Archuleta (December 31, 2023)
• Camp: Japan Top Team (Japan)
• Striking position/style: orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Additional information:
+ 2x bantamweight champion RIZIN
+ Regional MMA title
+ Zeno-kai karate black belt
+ Jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 13 KO victories
+ 3 bids won
+ 12 finishes in the first round
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Precise shot selection
^ Works well for the body/in boxing
+ Dangerous and dynamic knees
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Improved fighting ability
^ Strong first layer defense
+ Urgent jammer

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura Point of Interest: Flyweight Power

Kai Asakura def. Juan Archuleta in Rizin 45

As his nickname “Cannibal” suggests, Pantoja is an offensive marauder who is not afraid to shed blood for sustenance.

An inherent pressure fighter, Pantoja is usually at his best when he comes forward and looks to rally the opposition towards the cage. Even though Pantoja’s technique and defense can leave a lot to be desired at times, the Brazilian bruiser can move through offensive phases like second nature and counter well in combination.

In fact, Pantoja has quietly developed his counter-attacking acumen over his later years, which, in turn, gives him both more room to maneuver and options to operate from his feet.

Showing excellent instincts in the clinch, Pantoja has good knee feel and strikes from the break. However, Pantoja will have to respect the returning knees when facing a fighter like Kai Asakura.

Japan’s devastating attacker, Asakura fits more into the mold of a karate-boxing archetype.

The only unfortunate thing about Kai Asakura joining the UFC is that we won’t see him break someone’s jaw and then knee them in the head when they get back up. pic.twitter.com/MAjIC9quNG

– Martial Moves (@MVMNTMartials) November 30, 2024

Embracing the sweet science – while coming from a karate background – Asakura demonstrates the inherent distance management one would associate with his style. Whether Asakura is feinting or pushing with his lead hand, the 31-year-old challenger seems to keep his back hand on the trigger.

From intercepting uppercuts to overhands, Asakura will offer plenty of powerful threats capable of eliminating opponents, regardless of weight class. And although Asakura is good at hitting the body with punches, the Japanese keeps nasty knees in his back pocket for anyone who tries to change levels on him.

朝倉海

Kai Asakura’s boxing skills taking the knee to the body.

When Kai had Motoya in the corner, he landed a body-head combo and Motoya’s defense was no match. It cost him a Knockdown.

Later in the fight, Kai works in the clinch and keeps Motoya’s right arm high in… pic.twitter.com/HCTnM9RwNC

– Sweet Punch Memories (@SPM_staff) June 11, 2024

Pantoja Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura: Potential Fight Threats

Alexandre Pantoja (red gloves) fights Brandon Royval (blue gloves) during UFC 296 at T-Mobile Arena. (Stephen R. Sylvanie, USA TODAY Sports)

Considering where the biggest disparity lies on paper in this fight, no one should be shocked if the champion tries to take this party to the ground.

However, as discussed in the previous section, Asakura – aside from a solid top-layer takedown defense – presents powerful threats with his knees at multiple ranges.

Not only can Asakura catch incoming opponents with reactionary lifts or flying knees, but the RIZIN champion is also skilled at punishing his opponents in the clinch.

Fortunately for Pantoja, he seems to prefer takedown entries near chest level and works well in bodylock positions (which are great for avoiding front headlock scenarios and closing down necessary knee space).

Although he didn’t officially work on his wrestling until he teamed with Henry Cejudo after “TUF,” Pantoja was always a dangerous threat on the bodylock side.

Taking advantage of his previously mentioned clinch striking, Pantoja doesn’t hesitate to lock his hands around his opponent and sideline them whenever possible.

Showing good cage awareness, Pantoja wastes no time when it comes to getting stuck between the fence and the back of his opposition. And once Pantoja is able to take even the slightest bite out of a position, the Shooto Brazil veteran will jump at the opportunity to change the dynamic of the fight.

In victory or defeat, you’ll rarely see someone go behind Pantoja’s back for extended periods of time or subject him to precarious submission threats. In fact, the 17-year-old professional has a knack for turning negative positions around with his superb groundwork and scrambling ability.

I forgot how good the footwork was between Pantoja and Royval throughout the first few minutes of the 1st round…Royval’s attempted leg lock/tangle is fun, but man, I appreciate what Pantoja tries to go forward with influential kicks and vines as he advances for the back pic.twitter.com/yNnwqvBPtc

– Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) January 13, 2022

Pantoja, who has incredible transition instincts and sits in a chair, will have an advantage when it comes to finding the back. And if Pantoja ends up in the lead, the representative of the American Top Team performs fantastic ground strikes that we don’t talk about enough.

Like a snake striking its prey on the natural channel, Pantoja possesses incredible precision and dynamism during blows that lightly surround his opponent’s guard.

Alexandre Pantoja on the ground and to the book pic.twitter.com/2zBacuyt9I

– Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) July 5, 2023

Asakura, to his credit, possesses a solid butterfly guard and is an urgent jammer who rarely accepts negative positions. That said, I’m not sure how his turtle propensity will compare to the champion’s takedown sensitivities.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura odds

Oddsmakers and the public currently favor the reigning champion, listing Pantoja -280 and Asakura +210 via FanDuel.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura prediction, picks

Although the betting public generally disrespects Pantoja, I can’t say I disagree with the spread stated above.

Although Pantoja is the deserved favorite, it’s safe to say that Asakura’s chances are still respected – and rightly so.

Pantoja has proven unfinishable in his 17-year career so far, but Asakura will arguably be the hardest hitter the champion has seen since his 2019 loss to Deiveson Figueiredo. And if Asakura can be the one to crack Pantoja’s chin, then he’ll make history in more ways than one this Saturday.

However, as much as I would love to see Japan finally win a UFC title, there are ultimately too many checkmarks in Pantoja’s favor to choose against him here.

In addition to being Asakura’s first professional competition overseas, this will also be the first time Asakura has had to make the flyweight limit since 2017 (where he officially weighed 126 pounds). And as for the strike, Pantoja will also have discreet advantages there.

Not only does Asakura’s lack of head movement and defense tend to collapse on the back foot, but Pantoja – who has a background in Muay Thai – has a knack for dictating knee movement in his fights ( which will be crucial against this opponent). .

Add in the fact that Pantoja’s takedown chains along the fence will likely be even more effective against an opponent used to fighting in a ring, and I can’t help but see the UFC champion grounding Asakura and thrive in scrums given. the challenger’s propensity to torture.

I’ll pick Pantoja to survive the early scares and lock in a submission by the end of the second round.

Prediction: Pantoja in the distance