The essentials

With less than two weeks until the winter solstice, the weather in New Jersey is brightening and becoming more active this week. Unsettled is the name of the game, with well-deserved rain and a rollercoaster of temperatures ahead.

There are actually four headlines in this week’s weather forecast:
1.) Light scattered rain Monday.
2.) Dense fog Monday evening through Tuesday.
3.) Possibility of heavy rain and washing Wednesday.
4.) Big cooldown Thursday.

That’s a lot of time to play in just 72 hours. So grab the jacket and umbrella and let’s dive into the details.

Monday: wet

When we face such a severe drought situation, rainy days should make us all happy. Monday will not be dramatic or dangerous. There is nothing heavy, nothing serious and nothing wintery here. Just damp and dreary weather for most of the day.

The Monday morning commute is expected to remain dry. As of this writing (6:30 a.m.), clouds are filling in from the west. It’s cold at first, in the 30s.

Raindrops are expected to arrive in New Jersey starting at 10 a.m. Monday morning. And then we’ll dry around 6 p.m. Monday night. So, during the midday and afternoon hours, everyone in the state is expected to get wet. Total precipitation will likely average a quarter of an inch.

Due to clouds and rain, temperatures will also drop on Monday. (After Sunday, it became our first warmer-than-normal day since Thanksgiving.) Look for highs around 50 degrees, give or take.

Once the rain ends Monday evening, there will be residual puddles and wet surfaces until overnight. But there is no risk of frost, as temperatures will only drop into the low 40s overnight.

A new weather nuisance will develop late Monday evening: fog.

Tuesday: foggy

As temperatures cool to accommodate rising dew points, fog will develop Tuesday morning. Watch for pockets of low visibility.

And fog is expected to persist through much of Tuesday. You might see a glimmer of sunlight at some point, especially in the afternoon. (Fog is one of the most difficult weather phenomena to establish accurately.)

Otherwise, Tuesday will be dry. High temperatures will increase into the mid 50s.

Wednesday: wetter

Another storm system arrives Wednesday. A stronger one. Accompanied by more humid air. This will produce heavier, more substantial rainfall – on the order of 1 to 1.5 inches.

Wednesday is a potential risk for washout, as I see pockets of rain soaking New Jersey early in the morning until late in the evening. At the moment, model forecasts indicate that the most consistent and heaviest rain will occur during the afternoon hours. If you have outdoor activities planned for Wednesday, you may need to cancel or postpone…or get wet.

Wednesday will see high temperatures reach the 60s with a strong southwest breeze. (Too bad we can’t enjoy the warmth with all the rain.)

Wednesday’s wet weather will end with the arrival of a strong cold front late in the evening, just before midnight. As temperatures drop, there will be a brief opportunity for an hour or two of snow in northwest New Jersey – but it will be too brief and the ground will be too wet/warm for accumulations.

The other thing to watch for is the possibility of a flash freeze and icy spots Wednesday evening. For now, I’ll say it’s a “wait and see” type of possibility.

Thursday: Cold

Our weather goes in the completely opposite direction on Thursday, as arctic air returns to New Jersey.

Thursday will be sunny and dry. And windy, with west gusts exceeding 30 mph.

And cold. Expect temperatures around 30 degrees in the morning, then only to the mid 30s in the afternoon. (It’s a far cry from Wednesday’s soggy 60s.)

Back to bundling up, with freezing cold in the middle of winter.

Friday and beyond

Friday will be less windy than Thursday, but just as cold. We will likely see a widespread hard freeze in the morning, in the 20s. And then, once again, highs will only reach the 30s for most of the state.

A warm-up is expected to start over the weekend, reaching the 40s on Saturday and potentially 50 on Sunday. The GFS model favors another day of rain on Sunday, but other indications keep us dry. We will see how things continue to evolve.

Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest weather forecasts and updates in real time.