BEIRUT – For the first time in 50 years, the question of how Syria will be governed is wide open. The end of the Assad family’s rule is for many Syrians a moment of mixed joy and fear, of total unknown.

The insurgency that ousted President Bashar al-Assad from power is rooted in Islamist jihadist fighters. Its leader says he renounced his past ties to al-Qaeda and did everything possible to assert his vision of creating a pluralistic Syria governed by civilian institutions – not dictators or ideology .

But even if he is sincere, he is not the only player. The insurgency is made up of several factions and the country is torn between armed groupsincluding U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters who control the east. The remnants of the old regime’s military – and its feared security and intelligence services – could unite again.

Foreign powers with their own interests have their hands deep in the country, and each of them – Russia, IranTurkey, the United States and Israel – could serve as spoilers.

Syria’s multi-faith and multi-ethnic population faces a moment that could tip either towards chaos or cohesion. Sunni Muslims, Shiite Alawites, Christians and ethnic Kurds have often been pitted against each other, whether by the Assad regime or a 14-year civil war.

The divisions arising from the conflict run deep, and many worry about revenge killings, whether against former figures in Assad’s state or, more frighteningly, against entire communities seen as supporting the old system.

The civil war has displaced half of Syria’s pre-war population of 23 million. Many of those who fled are closely monitoring developments to determine whether the time is right to return.

For now, there are only questions.

How will Syria be governed?

In the short period after Assad’s brutal fall, rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Golanisought to reassure Syrians that the group he leads – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS – does not seek to dominate the country and will continue to serve the government. He spoke of establishing a decentralized system of governance.

Government officials who remained in Damascus during Assad’s flight – including Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali – met with rebels to discuss the transfer of power.

Al Jazeera television reported on Monday that HTS had decided to appoint the head of the “salvation government” that runs its stronghold in northwest Syria, Mohammed Al-Bashir, to form a transitional government. There has been no official confirmation.

Details on what form the government will take are scarce.

The rebels probably did not expect to rule an entire country when they launched their offensive against Aleppo less than two weeks ago, said Qutaiba Idlbi, a senior fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs. of the Atlantic Council. The rapid fall of Damascus and the disappearance of the police and army left security problems, he said.

The only existing transition framework is no longer relevant. UN Security Council Resolution 2254 had called for a political process involving both Assad’s government and opposition groups.

“Everyone says, especially the rebels on the ground: ‘This framework is no longer applicable because there is no longer a regime.’ We are not going to give the regime in politics what it lost by military means,’” ​​Idlbi said.

Public sector workers have so far failed to respond to the caretaker prime minister’s calls for them to return to work, causing unrest at places like airports, borders and at the Foreign Ministry, a said Adam Abdelmoula, UN humanitarian coordinator for Syria.

“I think it will take a few days – and a lot of assurance from the armed groups – for these people to return to work,” he said. In the current chaos, UN workers have had difficulty accessing the country, hampering the distribution of humanitarian aid, he said.

How inclusive will the insurgents be?

The insurgents have sought to reassure Syria’s religious minorities that they will not be targeted, despite HTS’ fundamentalist Sunni Muslim origins.

For now, civil peace appears to be lasting. The insurgents appear disciplined, striving to maintain order, with no signs of retaliation. Experts say only time will tell what post-Assad Syria will look like.

“Everyone is always willing to really engage, to really work with others,” said Haid Haid, consulting research fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. “This kind of positive atmosphere is crucial, but it may not last long. »

Divisions could open up as decisions are made.

It cannot be guaranteed that all HTS fighters will support al-Sharaa’s comments on a pluralist system. Outside Damascus’ historic Hamadiyeh market on Sunday, a dozen fighters chanted “Down with the secular state” – a sign that at least some among the insurgents may be seeking a harder Islamist line.

“The opposition is not a homogeneous movement,” said Burcu Ozcelik, a senior researcher on Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London.

There are several armed opposition groups, including forces in the south that are distinct from HTS and Turkish-backed groups in the north. Internal fractures within the HTS-led movement, “which could become more significant in the coming weeks and months, could lead to discord and threaten Syrian stability,” Ozcelik said.

Pressure could be brought to bear to purge former members of Assad’s large state bureaucracy, particularly those employed as part of a vast security state that included informants and officers widely hated for torture, abuse and corruption.

The insurgents and many citizens do not want their return. But a purge can trigger a destabilizing response — as when U.S. administrators disbanded the Iraqi army after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, fueling a Sunni insurgency.

The Alawite population of Syria feels particularly vulnerable. Assad and his family were Alawites – a branch of Shiite Islam – and many Sunni insurgents consider the community to be his followers.

The Kurdish question is worrying

Kurdish-led forces allied with the United States have for years controlled a semi-autonomous zone in northeastern Syria, where they play a key role in the fight against the Islamic State militant group. While both were opponents of the government during the civil war, relations between the Kurds and Arab opposition groups are strained.

HTS extends an olive branch to the Kurds. Reintegration of the East would likely mean some form of concession to Kurdish autonomy.

But that risks angering neighboring Turkey, which vehemently opposes the Kurdish factions that rule eastern Syria. Already, Turkish-backed insurgents and HTS allies have taken the opportunity to push the Kurds back from pockets of territory, seizing the town of Manbij, in the north of the country, and clashes have broken out in other regions.

Although the insurgents’ largely lenient approach toward minorities has so far assuaged many international concerns, Abdelmoula said “these pockets of fighting are very important because the fighting is taking place primarily along ethnic lines.” And it’s dangerous.

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Associated Press writers Danica Kirka in London and Jamey Keaten in Geneva contributed to this report. Keath reported from Cairo.