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Do you dream of a white Christmas? Snow Likely in These US States According to NOAA Climate Data

Pabio December 21, 2024

The countdown to the holidays is on, and if you’re dreaming of a white Christmas, NOAA has a list of places most likely to have one.

THE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published a report this month, which uses climate data to show where there is most likely to be snow on the ground for Christmas Day.

The data consists of averages from the last three decades of different types of observations. This includes both monthly and daily normals for precipitation, temperature, snowfall, heating and cooling degree days, growing degree days, as well as frost and freeze dates covering near of 15,000 different observation sites. Most of them are owned and operated by NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS).

So, what constitutes a “white Christmas”? According to NOAA, there should be at least 0.03 meters of snow on the ground on December 25. On the map below, the information comes from Climate Normals in the United States from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). The different colors represent the probability, based on measurements taken between 1991 and 2020 in the United States on Christmas Day, of which regions might have the best and worst chance of having a white Christmas. If your location is in a dark gray shaded area, you will unfortunately need to head to generally colder locations as the probability is less than 10%. The best-case scenario for snow on the ground on Christmas Day would be in a region highlighted in white, where the chance exceeds 90%.

gray map of the United States with blue to white shades on the northern half to indicate snowfall

(Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)

However, just because historical data inspires confidence about where there will be snow on the ground, it will all depend on what Mother Nature has in store for us this year leading up to Christmas Day.

If there is a huge snowstorm on Christmas Eve, places that don’t typically have snow on the ground could experience a Christmas morning with the grass covered in white. For example, in 2009, a cold snap in North Texas led to snow accumulation just before the holidays. He stayed on the ground until Christmas Day, which was a first for the region since 1926. And in 2023, Portland, Maine experienced a wet, non-white Christmas with warm air throughout the region, preventing the most likely chance of being a winter wonderland.

May the magical odds of holiday spirit be in your favor this year, so your dreams of a white Christmas can come true!

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Do you dream of a white Christmas? Snow Likely in These US States According to NOAA Climate Data

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Do you dream of a white Christmas? Snow Likely in These US States According to NOAA Climate Data

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