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The high cost of South Korea’s short-lived martial law
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The high cost of South Korea’s short-lived martial law

When South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol abruptly declared martial law on December 3, saying it was necessary to allow him to eliminate “anti-state” forces, street protests erupted almost immediately. By the time dawn broke, the National Assembly had unanimously passed a resolution to rescind Yoon’s statement.

Yoon has since been impeached and the Constitutional Court has opened a trial. But many still don’t understand why Yoon declared martial law.

This is certainly the case with the economists and financial policymakers I met during my long-planned visit to Seoul last week. Some guessed that Yoon was frustrated by his inability to pass legislation since April’s general election, in which his People Power Party (PPP) largely lost its parliamentary majority. A former prosecutor, Yoon is not particularly good at politics and the give and take of democratic politics was apparently too much for him to bear.

Whatever the motivation, Yoon’s statement turned out to be political suicide. To be sure, the opposition’s first impeachment attempt failed because PPP representatives – at least eight of whom should have voted in favor of Yoon’s impeachment – ​​walked out of the Assembly. But public protests continued to rage, and opinion polls confirmed the public’s overwhelmingly negative view of Yoon’s behavior. So when a second impeachment vote took place on December 14, the PPP stayed put. Ultimately, the motion was adopted by 204 votes to 85.

Many people in South Korea and abroad, including friends I spoke with, believe Yoon’s impeachment is a sign that the country’s democracy is working, despite the president’s attempt to overthrow it. Walking the streets of Seoul, the status quo seems to be the order of the day.

Even financial markets remained mostly calm, including during the ten days of political uncertainty that followed Yoon’s attempt to impose martial law.

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In the aftermath of this short-lived statement, the KOSPI, a representative stock index, fell 2%, from 2,500 to 2,464, and continued to decline, reaching 2,361 on December 9. But the index has since recovered most of its losses, rising to 2,495 on December 13. Likewise, although the yield on 10-year bonds fell slightly, it remained broadly stable.